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In randomized controlled trials without interference, regression adjustment is widely used to enhance the efficiency of treatment effect estimation. This paper extends this efficiency principle to settings with network interference, where a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-02-18 Xinyuan Fan , Chenlei Leng , Weichi Wu

This study investigates treatment effect estimation in the semi-supervised setting, also can be interpreted as prediction-powered inference. In our setting, we can use not only the standard triple of covariates, treatment indicator, and…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-05-05 Masahiro Kato

In randomized experiments, covariates are often used to reduce variance and improve the precision of treatment effect estimates. However, in many real-world settings, interference between units, where one unit's treatment affects another's…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-10 Xinyi Wang , Shuangning Li

This paper investigates the case of interference, when a unit's treatment also affects other units' outcome. When interference is at work, policy evaluation mostly relies on the use of randomized experiments under cluster interference and…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-06-13 Laura Forastiere , Davide Del Prete , Valerio Leone Sciabolazza

When making treatment selection decisions, it is essential to include a causal effect estimation analysis to compare potential outcomes under different treatments or controls, assisting in optimal selection. However, merely estimating…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-10-08 Sherly Alfonso-Sánchez , Kristina P. Sendova , Cristián Bravo

Difference-in-differences is a popular method for observational health policy evaluation. It relies on a causal assumption that in the absence of intervention, treatment groups' outcomes would have evolved in parallel to those of comparison…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-02-09 Alyssa Bilinski , Laura A. Hatfield

Shared controls in platform trials comprise concurrent and non-concurrent controls. For a given experimental arm, non-concurrent controls refer to data from patients allocated to the control arm before the arm enters the trial. The use of…

Despite their cost, randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are widely regarded as gold-standard evidence in disciplines ranging from social science to medicine. In recent decades, researchers have increasingly sought to reduce the resource…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-02-24 Guilherme Duarte

Most of the widely used estimators of the average treatment effect (ATE) in causal inference rely on the assumptions of unconfoundedness and overlap. Unconfoundedness requires that the observed covariates account for all correlations…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-07-01 Yang Cai , Alkis Kalavasis , Katerina Mamali , Anay Mehrotra , Manolis Zampetakis

Multi-Regional Clinical Trials (MRCTs) play a central role in the development of new therapies by enabling the simultaneous evaluation of drug efficacy and safety across diverse global populations. Assessing the consistency of treatment…

应用统计 · 统计学 2026-02-10 Kunhai Qing , Xinru Ren , Jin Xu , Menggang Yu

Although randomized experiments are widely regarded as the gold standard for estimating causal effects, missing data of the pretreatment covariates makes it challenging to estimate the subgroup causal effects. When the missing data…

统计理论 · 数学 2014-01-08 Peng Ding , Zhi Geng

This paper studies inference for the local average treatment effect in randomized controlled trials with imperfect compliance where treatment status is determined according to "matched pairs." By "matched pairs," we mean that units are…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2024-06-28 Yuehao Bai , Hongchang Guo , Azeem M. Shaikh , Max Tabord-Meehan

The target trial framework enables causal inference from longitudinal observational data by emulating randomized trials initiated at multiple time points. Precision is often improved by pooling information across trials, with standard…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-01-08 Edoardo Efrem Gervasoni , Liesbet De Bus , Stijn Vansteelandt , Oliver Dukes

I study identification, estimation and inference for spillover effects in experiments where units' outcomes may depend on the treatment assignments of other units within a group. I show that the commonly-used reduced-form linear-in-means…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2022-01-21 Gonzalo Vazquez-Bare

Researchers are increasingly turning to machine learning (ML) algorithms to investigate causal heterogeneity in randomized experiments. Despite their promise, ML algorithms may fail to accurately ascertain heterogeneous treatment effects…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-04-23 Kosuke Imai , Michael Lingzhi Li

When constructing a model to estimate the causal effect of a treatment, it is necessary to control for other factors which may have confounding effects. Because the ignorability assumption is not testable, however, it is usually unclear…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-09-07 Spencer Woody , Carlos M. Carvalho , Jared S. Murray

This paper establishes sufficient conditions for the identification of the marginal treatment effects with multivalued treatments. Our model is based on a multinomial choice model with utility maximization. Our MTE generalizes the MTE…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2024-12-30 Toshiki Tsuda

This dissertation focuses on modern causal inference under uncertainty and data restrictions, with applications to neoadjuvant clinical trials, distributed data networks, and robust individualized decision making. In the first project, we…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-01-24 Xiaoqing Tan

We show that causal effects can be identified when there is bunching in the distribution of a continuous treatment variable, without imposing any parametric assumptions. This yields a new nonparametric method for overcoming selection bias…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-07-08 Carolina Caetano , Gregorio Caetano , Leonard Goff , Eric Nielsen

Three critical issues for causal inference that often occur in modern, complicated experiments are interference, treatment nonadherence, and missing outcomes. A great deal of research efforts has been dedicated to developing causal…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-04-06 Yuki Ohnishi , Arman Sabbaghi