相关论文: Changepoint analysis of historical battle deaths

This study examines whether there has been a decline in the risk of death by battle during wars, testing the 'long peace' hypothesis. The analysis relies on the Expanded War Dataset (Gleditsch, 2004) covering intra- and inter-state wars…

Analysis of wars and conflicts between regions has been an important topic of interest throughout the history of humankind. In the latter part of the 20th century, in the aftermath of two World Wars and the shadow of nuclear, biological,…

We analyze the database prepared by Brecke (Brecke 2011) for violent conflict, covering some 600 years of human history. After normalizing the data for the global human population, we find that the number of casualties tends to follow a…

We examine statistical pictures of violent conflicts over the last 2000 years, finding techniques for dealing with incompleteness and unreliability of historical data. We introduce a novel approach to apply extreme value theory to…

This paper presents a statistical analysis of structural changes in the Central England temperature series, one of the longest surface temperature records available. A changepoint analysis is performed to detect abrupt changes, which can be…

Change-point analysis is a flexible and computationally tractable tool for the analysis of times series data from systems that transition between discrete states and whose observables are corrupted by noise. The change-point algorithm is…

Changepoint analysis deals with unsupervised detection and/or estimation of time-points in time-series data, when the distribution generating the data changes. In this article, we consider \emph{offline} changepoint detection in the context…

We use multivariate change point analysis methods, to identify not only mean shifts but also changes in variance across a wide array of statistical time series. Our primary objective is to empirically discern distinct eras in the evolution…

Diverse analysis approaches have been proposed to distinguish data missing due to death from nonresponse, and to summarize trajectories of longitudinal data truncated by death. We demonstrate how these analysis approaches arise from…

We investigate the large-sample behavior of change-point tests based on weighted two-sample U-statistics, in the case of short-range dependent data. Under some mild mixing conditions, we establish convergence of the test statistic to an…

Change-point detection studies the problem of detecting the changes in the underlying distribution of the data stream as soon as possible after the change happens. Modern large-scale, high-dimensional, and complex streaming data call for…

The American Indian war lasted over one hundred years, and is a major event in the history of North America. As expected, since the war commenced in late eighteenth century, casualty records surrounding this conflict contain numerous…

It is demonstrated that World War II casualty data display statistical structure that would be expected from multifractal data. Given that the data displayed these properties, it is shown how the existence of power-law tails in the…

The Correlates of War project scrupulously collects information about disputes between the countries over a long historical period together with other data relevant to the character and reasons of international conflicts. Using methods of…

In this paper we present a loss-based approach to change point analysis. In particular, we look at the problem from two perspectives. The first focuses on the definition of a prior when the number of change points is known a priori. The…

This paper describes and compares several prominent single and multiple changepoint techniques for time series data. Due to their importance in inferential matters, changepoint research on correlated data has accelerated recently.…

Joinpoint regression is used to determine the number of segments needed to adequately explain the relationship between two variables. This methodology can be widely applied to real problems, but we focus on epidemiological data, the main…

Existing models of political violence often emphasize discrete transitions, when conflicts emerge, escalate, or subside, without considering the longer trajectories of violence that accumulate across time and space. This paper introduces a…

Introduction: Modelling of relative treatment effects is an important aspect to consider when extrapolating the long-term survival outcomes of treatments. Flexible parametric models offer the ability to accurately model the observed data,…

Mid-study design modifications are becoming increasingly accepted in confirmatory clinical trials, so long as appropriate methods are applied such that error rates are controlled. It is therefore unfortunate that the important case of…