相关论文: An Analytical Probabilistic Expression for Modelin…
In power system operation, characterizing the stochastic nature of wind power is an important albeit challenging issue. It is well known that distributions of wind power forecast errors often exhibit significant variability with respect to…
To capture the stochastic characteristics of renewable energy generation output, the chance-constrained unit commitment (CCUC) model is widely used. Conventionally, analytical solution for CCUC is usually based on simplified probability…
Uncertainty analysis in the form of probabilistic forecasting can provide significant improvements in decision-making processes in the smart power grid for better integrating renewable energies such as wind. Whereas point forecasting…
Renewable energy sources provide a constantly increasing contribution to the total energy production worldwide. However, the power generation from these sources is highly variable due to their dependence on meteorological conditions.…
This work proposes a method of wind farm scenario generation to support real-time optimization tools and presents key findings therein. This work draws upon work from the literature and presents an efficient and scalable method for…
The growing complexity of the power grid, driven by increasing share of distributed energy resources and by massive deployment of intelligent internet-connected devices, requires new modelling tools for planning and operation. Physics-based…
In recent years, probabilistic forecasts techniques were proposed in research as well as in applications to integrate volatile renewable energy resources into the electrical grid. These techniques allow decision makers to take the…
The probabilistic characteristics of daily wind speed are not well captured by simple density functions such as Normal or Weibull distribuions as suggested by the existing literature. The unmodeled uncertainties can cause unknown influences…
Accurately representing surface weather at the sub-kilometer scale is crucial for optimal decision-making in a wide range of applications. This motivates the use of statistical techniques to provide accurate and calibrated probabilistic…
Each year a growing number of wind farms are being added to power grids to generate electricity. The power curve of a wind turbine, which exhibits the relationship between generated power and wind speed, plays a major role in assessing the…
Wind power forecasting is essential to power system operation and electricity markets. As abundant data became available thanks to the deployment of measurement infrastructures and the democratization of meteorological modelling, extensive…
This paper addresses the problem of predicting a wind farm's power generation when no or few statistical data is available. The study is based on a time-series wind speed model and on a simple dynamic model of a DFIG wind turbine including…
For the purpose of Monte Carlo scenario generation, we propose a graphical model for the joint distribution of wind power and electricity demand in a given region. To conform with the practice in the electric power industry, we assume that…
Recent advances in steady-state analysis of power systems have introduced the equivalent split-circuit approach and corresponding continuation methods that can reliably find the correct physical solution of large-scale power system…
Probabilistic forecasts of wind speed are important for a wide range of applications, ranging from operational decision making in connection with wind power generation to storm warnings, ship routing and aviation. We present a statistical…
In this paper, the variable wind power is incorporated into the dynamic model for long-term stability analysis. A theory-based method is proposed for power systems with wind power to conduct long-term stability analysis, which is able to…
We design a Gaussian Process (GP) spatiotemporal model to capture features of day-ahead wind power forecasts. We work with hourly-scale day-ahead forecasts across hundreds of wind farm locations, with the main aim of constructing a fully…
In this study, we present an improved formulation for the wake-added turbulence to enhance the accuracy of intra-farm and farm-to-farm wake modeling through analytical frameworks. Our goal is to address the tendency of a commonly used…
For the purpose of Monte Carlo scenario generation, we propose a graphical model for the joint distribution of wind power and electricity demand in a given region. To conform with the practice in the electric power industry, we assume that…
Aggregated stochastic characteristics of geographically distributed wind generation will provide valuable information for secured and economical system operation in electricity markets. This paper focuses on the uncertainty set prediction…