相关论文: A flood damage allowance framework for coastal pro…
Strategies to manage the risks posed by future sea-level rise hinge on a sound characterization of the inherent uncertainties. One of the major uncertainties is the possible rapid disintegration of large fractions of the Antarctic ice sheet…
Future sea-level rise drives severe risks for many coastal communities. Strategies to manage these risks hinge on a sound characterization of the uncertainties. For example, recent studies suggest that large fractions of the Antarctic ice…
Sea-levels are rising in many areas around the world, posing risks to coastal communities and infrastructures. Strategies for managing these flood risks present decision challenges that require a combination of geophysical, economic, and…
Sea-level rise (SLR) causes estimates of flood risk made under the assumption of stationary mean sea level to be biased low. However, adjustments to flood return levels made assuming fixed increases of sea level are also inaccurate when…
Mechanisms such as ice-shelf hydrofracturing and ice-cliff collapse may rapidly increase discharge from marine-based ice sheets. Here, we link a probabilistic framework for sea-level projections to a small ensemble of Antarctic ice-sheet…
Sea-level rise and associated flood hazards pose severe risks to the millions of people globally living in coastal zones. Models representing coastal adaptation and impacts are important tools to inform the design of strategies to manage…
Future sea-level rise poses nontrivial risks for many coastal communities. Managing these risks often relies on consensus projections like those provided by the IPCC. Yet, there is a growing awareness that the surrounding uncertainties may…
Coastal planners and decision makers design risk management strategies based on hazard projections. However, projections can differ drastically. What causes this divergence and which projection(s) should a decision maker adopt to create…
Damage cost curves -- relating the typical damage of a natural hazard to its physical magnitude -- represent an indispensable ingredient necessary for climate change impact assessments. Combining such curves with the occurrence probability…
Tropical storms cause extensive property damage and loss of life, making them one of the most destructive types of natural hazards. The development of predictive models that identify interventions effective at mitigating storm impacts has…
Coastal flooding drives considerable risks to many communities, but projections of future flood risks are deeply uncertain. The paucity of observations of extreme events often motivates the use of statistical approaches to model the…
Decisions on how to manage future flood risks are frequently informed by both sophisticated and computationally expensive models. This complexity often limits the representation of uncertainties and the consideration of strategies. Here, we…
Managing coastal flood risks involves choosing among portfolios of different options. Analyzing these choices typically requires a model. State-of-the-art coastal risk models provide detailed regional information, but can be difficult to…
The response of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) to changing climate forcings is an important driver of sea-level changes. Anthropogenic climate change may drive a sizeable AIS tipping point response with subsequent increases in coastal…
Flood-related risks to people and property are expected to increase in the future due to environmental and demographic changes. It is important to quantify and effectively communicate flood hazards and exposure to inform the design and…
Prior literature has argued that flood insurance maps may not capture the extent of flood risk. This paper performs a granular assessment of coastal flood risk in the mortgage market by using physical simulations of hurricane storm surge…
Projections of extreme sea levels (ESLs) are critical for managing coastal risks, but are made complicated by deep uncertainties. One key uncertainty is the choice of model structure used to estimate coastal hazards. Differences in model…
Climate models are critical tools for developing strategies to manage the risks posed by sea-level rise to coastal communities. While these models are necessary for understanding climate risks, there is a level of uncertainty inherent in…
Sea-level rise poses considerable risks to coastal communities, ecosystems, and infrastructure. Decision makers are faced with uncertain sea-level projections when designing a strategy for coastal adaptation. The traditional methods are…
As governments race to implement new climate adaptation policies that prepare for more frequent flooding, they must seek policies that are effective for all communities and uphold climate justice. This requires evaluating policies not only…