相关论文: Using extreme value theory for the estimation of r…

This brief paper summarize the chances offered by the Peak-Over-Threshold method, related with analysis of extremes. Identification of appropriate Value at Risk can be solved by fitting data with a Generalized Pareto Distribution. Also an…

We give an overview of several aspects arising in the statistical analysis of extreme risks with actuarial applications in view. In particular it is demonstrated that empirical process theory is a very powerful tool, both for the asymptotic…

There is an increasing interest to understand the dependence structure of a random vector not only in the center of its distribution but also in the tails. Extreme-value theory tackles the problem of modelling the joint tail of a…

Resource adequacy studies typically use standard metrics such as Loss of Load Expectation and Expected Energy Unserved to quantify the risk of supply shortfalls. This paper critiques present approaches to adequacy assessment and capacity…

Extreme value theory provides rigorous theory and statistical tools for extrapolation in machine learning, particularly in settings where traditional methods struggle due to data scarcity in the tails. A broad range of tasks benefit from…

Although the fundamental probabilistic theory of extremes has been well developed, there are many practical considerations that must be addressed in application. The contribution of this thesis is four-fold. The first concerns the choice of…

Extreme value analysis is an essential methodology in the study of rare and extreme events, which hold significant interest in various fields, particularly in the context of environmental sciences. Models that employ the exceedances of…

For measuring tail risk with scarce extreme events, extreme value analysis is often invoked as the statistical tool to extrapolate to the tail of a distribution. The presence of large datasets benefits tail risk analysis by providing more…

Inference over tails is usually performed by fitting an appropriate limiting distribution over observations that exceed a fixed threshold. However, the choice of such threshold is critical and can affect the inferential results. Extreme…

The concept of capacity value is widely used to quantify the contribution of additional generation (most notably renewables) within generation adequacy assessments. This paper surveys the existing probability theory of assessment of the…

This article presents methods for estimating extreme probabilities, beyond the range of the observations. These methods are model-free and applicable to almost any sample size. They are grounded in order statistics theory and have a wide…

Extreme value theory provides an asymptotically justified framework for estimation of exceedance probabilities in regions where few or no observations are available. For multivariate tail estimation, the strength of extremal dependence is…

We study distributional robustness in the context of Extreme Value Theory (EVT). We provide a data-driven method for estimating extreme quantiles in a manner that is robust against incorrect model assumptions underlying the application of…

Inference over tails is performed by applying only the results of extreme value theory. Whilst such theory is well defined and flexible enough in the univariate case, multivariate inferential methods often require the imposition of…

We use extreme value theory to estimate the probability of successive exceedances of a threshold value of a time-series of an observable on several classes of chaotic dynamical systems. The observables have either a Fr\'echet (fat-tailed)…

This thesis evaluates most of the extreme mixture models and methods that have appended in the literature and implements them in the context of finance and insurance. The paper also reviews and studies extreme value theory, time series,…

Risk-sensitive reinforcement learning (RL) has garnered significant attention in recent years due to the growing interest in deploying RL agents in real-world scenarios. A critical aspect of risk awareness involves modeling highly rare risk…

Preferential attachment is an appealing edge generating mechanism for modeling social networks. It provides both an intuitive description of network growth and an explanation for the observed power laws in degree distributions. However,…

In risk management, often the probability must be estimated that a random vector falls into an extreme failure set. In the framework of bivariate extreme value theory, we construct an estimator for such failure probabilities and analyze its…

The use of expectiles in risk management has recently gathered remarkable momentum due to their excellent axiomatic and probabilistic properties. In particular, the class of elicitable law-invariant coherent risk measures only consists of…