相关论文: Prediction in a driven-dissipative system displayi…

We consider the problem of predicting power outages in an electrical power grid due to hazards produced by convective storms. These storms produce extreme weather phenomena such as intense wind, tornadoes and lightning over a small area. In…

Statistical similarities between earthquakes and other systems that emit cracking noises have been explored in diverse contexts, ranging from materials science to financial and social systems. Such analogies give promise of a unified and…

Credibly assessing the resilience of energy infrastructure in the face of natural disasters is a salient concern facing researchers, government officials, and community members. Here, we explore the influence of the spatial distribution of…

In this paper we address the use of rare event computation techniques to estimate small over-threshold probabilities of observables in determin-istic dynamical systems. We demonstrate that the genealogical particle analysis algorithms can…

Although researchers accumulated knowledge about seismogenesis and decades-long earthquake data, predicting imminent individual earthquakes at a specific time and location remains a long-standing enigma. This study hypothesizes that the…

One way to warn of forthcoming critical transitions in Earth system components is using observations to detect declining system stability. It has also been suggested to extrapolate such stability changes into the future and predict tipping…

We analytically describe the decay to equilibrium of generic observables of a non-integrable system after a perturbation in the form of a random matrix. We further obtain an analytic form for the time-averaged fluctuations of an observable…

The potential for complex systems to exhibit tipping points in which an equilibrium state undergoes a sudden and often irreversible shift is well established, but prediction of these events using standard forecast modeling techniques is…

This paper provides theoretical and practical arguments regarding the possibility of predicting strong and major earthquakes worldwide. Many strong and major earthquakes can be predicted at least two to five months in advance, based on…

We propose a new approach for generating synthetic earthquake catalogues based on the physics of soft glasses. The continuum approach produces yield-stress materials based on Lattice-Boltzmann simulations. We show that, if the material is…

We study earthquake interval time statistics, paying special attention to inter-occurrence times in the two-dimensional (2D) stick-slip (block-slider) model. Inter-occurrence times are the time interval between successive earthquakes on all…

Fluctuations in the occurrence of large, disastrous earthquakes are important for the study of deviations from the regular behavior of earthquakes. In this study, to assist in our understanding of the irregular behavior of earthquake…

A fundamental challenge in probabilistic modeling is to balance expressivity and inference efficiency. Tractable probabilistic models (TPMs) aim to directly address this tradeoff by imposing constraints that guarantee efficient inference of…

A long noted difficulty when assessing the reliability (or calibration) of forecasting systems is that reliability, in general, is a hypothesis not about a finite dimensional parameter but about an entire functional relationship. A…

A Predictor-Corrector strategy is employed for the numerical simulation of the one-dimensional Burridge-Knopoff model of earthquakes. This approach is totally explicit and allows to reproduce the main features of the model. The results…

When ignorance due to the lack of knowledge, modeled as epistemic uncertainty using Dempster-Shafer structures on closed intervals, is present in the model parameters, a new uncertainty propagation method is necessary to propagate both…

Forecasting the full distribution of the number of earthquakes is revealed to be inherently superior to forecasting their mean. Forecasting the full distribution of earthquake numbers is also shown to yield robust projections in the…

A finite dimensional-system whose physics is governed by a Gaussian distribution can be regarded as a subsystem of an infinite dimensional-underlying system described by a uniform distribution on the (infinite dimensional) sphere. In turn,…

Quantum criticality in the presence of strong quenched randomness remains a challenging topic in modern condensed matter theory. We show that the topology and anomaly associated with average symmetry can be used to predict certain…

Decomposing predictive uncertainty into epistemic (model ignorance) and aleatoric (data ambiguity) components is central to reliable decision making, yet most methods estimate both from the same predictive distribution. Recent empirical and…