相关论文: On the Consistency among Prior, Posteriors, and In…

We study the stability of posterior predictive inferences to the specification of the likelihood model and perturbations of the data generating process. In modern big data analyses, useful broad structural judgements may be elicited from…

In the Bayesian approach, the a priori knowledge about the input of a mathematical model is described via a probability measure. The joint distribution of the unknown input and the data is then conditioned, using Bayes' formula, giving rise…

We define the information threshold as the point of maximum curvature in the prior vs. posterior Bayesian curve, both of which are described as a function of the true positive and negative rates of the classification system in question. The…

Bayes' theorem incorporates distinct types of information through the likelihood and prior. Direct observations of state variables enter the likelihood and modify posterior probabilities through consistent updating. Information in terms of…

By representing the range of fair betting odds according to a pair of confidence set estimators, dual probability measures on parameter space called frequentist posteriors secure the coherence of subjective inference without any prior…

We study belief revision when information is represented by a set of probability distributions, or general information. General information extends the standard event notion while including qualitative information (A is more likely than B),…

This paper characterizes the conditions under which the observed beliefs of a group of agents are consistent with Bayesian updating. Beliefs are consistent with Bayesianism if they arise from the application of Bayes' rule given some…

An agent is a misspecified Bayesian if she updates her belief using Bayes' rule given a subjective, possibly misspecified model of her signals. This paper shows that a belief sequence is consistent with misspecified Bayesian updating if and…

Confidence sequences are collections of confidence regions that simultaneously cover the true parameter for every sample size at a prescribed confidence level. Tightening these sequences is of practical interest and can be achieved by…

In recent years, the literature in the area of Bayesian asymptotics has been rapidly growing. It is increasingly important to understand the concept of posterior consistency and validate specific Bayesian methods, in terms of consistency of…

Much is now known about the consistency of Bayesian updating on infinite-dimensional parameter spaces with independent or Markovian data. Necessary conditions for consistency include the prior putting enough weight on the correct…

Informally, "Information Inconsistency" is the property that has been observed in many Bayesian hypothesis testing and model selection procedures whereby the Bayesian conclusion does not become definitive when the data seems to become…

The general use of subjective probabilities to model belief has been justified using many axiomatic schemes. For example, ?consistent betting behavior' arguments are well-known. To those not already convinced of the unique fitness and…

The proposed approach extends the confidence posterior distribution to the semi-parametric empirical Bayes setting. Whereas the Bayesian posterior is defined in terms of a prior distribution conditional on the observed data, the confidence…

Bayesian inference provides a natural framework for updating knowledge as new information becomes available, often in a sequential manner by incorporating datasets in stages or reusing previous posteriors as priors. In practice, this is…

In Bayesian statistics, the choice of prior distribution is often debatable, especially if prior knowledge is limited or data are scarce. In imprecise probability, sets of priors are used to accurately model and reflect prior knowledge.…

A fundamental question in causal inference is whether it is possible to reliably infer manipulation effects from observational data. There are a variety of senses of asymptotic reliability in the statistical literature, among which the most…

We construct a probabilistic coherence measure for information sets which determines a partial coherence ordering. This measure is applied in constructing a criterion for expanding our beliefs in the face of new information. A number of…

In this paper, we are concerned with attributing meaning to the results of a Bayesian analysis for a problem which is sufficiently complex that we are unable to assert a precise correspondence between the expert probabilistic judgements of…

Order effects occur when judgments about a hypothesis's probability given a sequence of information do not equal the probability of the same hypothesis when the information is reversed. Different experiments have been performed in the…