相关论文: Evaluation Pattern on Refugee Crisis

One way to make decisions under uncertainty is to select an optimal option from a possible range of options, by maximizing the expected utilities derived from a probability model. However, under severe uncertainty, identifying precise…

Compartmental epidemic models have been widely used for predicting the course of epidemics, from estimating the basic reproduction number to guiding intervention policies. Studies commonly acknowledge these models' assumptions but less…

Recent advances in decision-making policies have led to significant progress in fields such as autonomous driving and robotics. However, testing these policies remains crucial with the existence of critical scenarios that may threaten their…

Many biological, psychological and economic experiments have been designed where an organism or individual must choose between two options that have the same expected reward but differ in the variance of reward received. In this way,…

This paper addresses decision-aiding problems that involve multiple objectives and uncertain states of the world. Inspired by the capability approach, we focus on cases where a policy maker chooses an act that, combined with a state of the…

The framing of political issues can influence policy and public opinion. Even though the public plays a key role in creating and spreading frames, little is known about how ordinary people on social media frame political issues. By creating…

Agent-Based Models (ABMs) are often used to model migration and are increasingly used to simulate individual migrant decision-making and unfolding events through a sequence of heuristic if-then rules. However, ABMs lack the methods to embed…

Moving parcels from origin to destination should not require a lot of re-planning. However, the vast number of shipments and destinations, which need to be re-aligned in real-time due to various external factors makes the delivery process a…

Investigations of infectious disease outbreaks often focus on identifying place- and context-dependent factors responsible for emergence and spread, resulting in phenomenological narratives ill-suited to developing generalizable predictive…

Cyber threats affect all kinds of organisations. Risk analysis is an essential methodology for cybersecurity as it allows organisations to deal with the cyber threats potentially affecting them, prioritise the defence of their assets and…

Economists often estimate economic models on data and use the point estimates as a stand-in for the truth when studying the model's implications for optimal decision-making. This practice ignores model ambiguity, exposes the decision…

Already today, driver assistance systems help to make daily traffic more comfortable and safer. However, there are still situations that are quite rare but are hard to handle at the same time. In order to cope with these situations and to…

This paper presents a general framework about what is a decision problem. Our motivation is related to the fact that decision analysis and operational research are structured (as disciplines) around classes of methods, while instead we…

Complex event processing (CEP) is widely employed to detect occurrences of predefined combinations (patterns) of events in massive data streams. As new events are accepted, they are matched using some type of evaluation structure, commonly…

As software systems are getting increasingly connected, there is a need for equipping nonmonotonic logic programs with access to external sources that are possibly remote and may contain information in heterogeneous formats. To cater for…

A key principle in resilience thinking is Embracing Change because change is, indeed, inevitable. In the face of a growing number of disasters, natural and human-made disasters, our critical infrastructures (CIs) are being challenged like…

Potential violent criminals will often need to go through a sequence of preparatory steps before they can execute their plans. During this escalation process police have the opportunity to evaluate the threat posed by such people through…

Distributing development tasks in the context of global software development bears both many risks and many opportunities. Nowadays, distributed development is often driven by only a few factors or even just a single factor such as…

Current machine learning models are evaluated through behavioral snapshots, with benchmark accuracies, win rates and outcome-based metrics. Model explanations and evaluations, however, are fundamentally intertwined: understanding why a…

International migration implies the coexistence of different ethnic and cultural groups in the receiving country. The refugee crisis of 2015 has resulted in critical levels of opinion polarization on the question of whether to welcome…