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Our paper deals with inferring simulator-based statistical models given some observed data. A simulator-based model is a parametrized mechanism which specifies how data are generated. It is thus also referred to as generative model. We…

机器学习 · 统计学 2016-01-01 Michael U. Gutmann , Jukka Corander

Many modern time-series datasets contain large numbers of output response variables sampled for prolonged periods of time. For example, in neuroscience, the activities of 100s-1000's of neurons are recorded during behaviors and in response…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-03-15 Rui Meng , Kristofer Bouchard

Model-based design of experiments (MBDOE) is essential for efficient parameter estimation in nonlinear dynamical systems. However, conventional adaptive MBDOE requires costly posterior inference and design optimization between each…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-03-25 Arno Strouwen , Sebastian Micluţa-Câmpeanu

Inverse problems are the task of calibrating models to match data. They play a pivotal role in diverse engineering applications by allowing practitioners to align models with reality. In many applications, engineers and scientists do not…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-03-05 Pengyu Zhang , Arnaud Vadeboncoeur , Alex Glyn-Davies , Mark Girolami

We propose a model for functional data registration that compares favorably to the best methods of functional data registration currently available. It also extends current inferential capabilities for unregistered data by providing a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2016-06-06 Cecilia Earls , Giles Hooker

Ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are used to model dynamic systems appearing in engineering, physics, biomedical sciences and many other fields. These equations contain unknown parameters, say $\bm\theta$ of physical significance…

统计理论 · 数学 2014-11-05 Prithwish Bhaumik , Subhashis Ghosal

With the growing complexity of deep learning methods adopted in practical applications, there is an increasing and stringent need to explain and interpret the decisions of such methods. In this work, we focus on explainable AI and propose a…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-08-05 Antonio Barbalau , Adrian Cosma , Radu Tudor Ionescu , Marius Popescu

Estimating conditional independence graphs from high-dimensional Gaussian data is challenging because methods must detect relevant edges while rigorously controlling statistical errors. We propose a Bayesian framework based on a prior…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-21 Roland B. Sogan , Tabea Rebafka , Fanny Villers

In this paper, we propose a unified framework for identifying interpretable nonlinear dynamical models that preserve physical properties. The proposed approach integrates physical principles with black-box basis functions to compensate for…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2025-06-10 Cesare Donati , Martina Mammarella , Fabrizio Dabbene , Carlo Novara , Constantino Lagoa

This paper proposes a hierarchical Bayesian multitask learning model that is applicable to the general multi-task binary classification learning problem where the model assumes a shared sparsity structure across different tasks. We derive a…

This work is concerned with uncertainty quantification in reduced-order dynamical system identification. Reduced-order models for system dynamics are ubiquitous in design and control applications and recent efforts focus on their…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2021-03-10 Prem Ratan Mohan Ram , Ulrich Römer , Richard Semaan

We develop an approach to learn an interpretable semi-parametric model of a latent continuous-time stochastic dynamical system, assuming noisy high-dimensional outputs sampled at uneven times. The dynamics are described by a nonlinear…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-02-13 Lea Duncker , Gergo Bohner , Julien Boussard , Maneesh Sahani

Dynamical systems modeling is a core pillar of scientific inquiry across natural and life sciences. Increasingly, dynamical system models are learned from data, rendering identifiability a paramount concept. For systems that are not…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-05-11 Cecilia Casolo , Sören Becker , Niki Kilbertus

The estimation of static parameters in dynamical systems and control theory has been extensively studied, with significant progress made in estimating varying parameters in specific system types. Suppose, in the general case, we have data…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2025-07-10 Jamiree Harrison , Enoch Yeung

Bayesian inference is a powerful tool for parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification in dynamical systems. However, for nonlinear oscillator networks such as Kuramoto models, widely used to study synchronization phenomena in…

应用统计 · 统计学 2026-03-24 Emma Hannula , Jana de Wiljes , Matthew T. Moores , Heikki Haario , Lassi Roininen

Stochastic differential equation mixed-effects models (SDEMEMs) are flexible hierarchical models that are able to account for random variability inherent in the underlying time-dynamics, as well as the variability between experimental units…

统计计算 · 统计学 2021-01-22 Samuel Wiqvist , Andrew Golightly , Ashleigh T. McLean , Umberto Picchini

System identification of complex and nonlinear systems is a central problem for model predictive control and model-based reinforcement learning. Despite their complexity, such systems can often be approximated well by a set of linear…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-05-30 Philip Becker-Ehmck , Jan Peters , Patrick van der Smagt

Inference models are a key component in scaling variational inference to deep latent variable models, most notably as encoder networks in variational auto-encoders (VAEs). By replacing conventional optimization-based inference with a…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2018-07-26 Joseph Marino , Yisong Yue , Stephan Mandt

In engineering, accurately modeling nonlinear dynamic systems from data contaminated by noise is both essential and complex. Established Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods, used for the Bayesian identification of these systems, facilitate…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-04-25 Joe D. Longbottom , Max D. Champneys , Timothy J. Rogers

Bayesian estimation approaches, which are capable of combining the information of experimental data from different likelihood functions to achieve high precisions, have been widely used in phase estimation via introducing a controllable…

量子物理 · 物理学 2021-07-02 Yuxiang Qiu , Min Zhuang , Jiahao Huang , Chaohong Lee