相关论文: Rare Failure Prediction via Event Matching for Aer…

Satellite imagery is now widely used in the defense sector for monitoring locations of interest. Although the increasing amount of data enables pattern identification and therefore prediction, carrying this task manually is hardly feasible.…

Traditionally, research in Business Process Management has put a strong focus on centralized and intra-organizational processes. However, today's business processes are increasingly distributed, deviating from a centralized layout, and…

Estimating the probability of failures or accidents with aerospace systems is often necessary when new concepts or designs are introduced, as it is being done for Autonomous Aircraft. If the design is safe, as it is supposed to be, accident…

Machine learning models have prevalent applications in many real-world problems, which increases the importance of correctness in the behaviour of these trained models. Finding a good test case that can reveal the potential failure in these…

In this study, we propose an approach for predicting rare events by exploiting time series in coevolution. Our approach involves a weighted autologistic regression model, where we leverage the temporal behavior of the data to enhance…

Estimating probability of failure in aerospace systems is a critical requirement for flight certification and qualification. Failure probability estimation involves resolving tails of probability distribution, and Monte Carlo sampling…

Rare event prediction involves identifying and forecasting events with a low probability using machine learning (ML) and data analysis. Due to the imbalanced data distributions, where the frequency of common events vastly outweighs that of…

As robots aspire for long-term autonomous operations in complex dynamic environments, the ability to reliably take mission-critical decisions in ambiguous situations becomes critical. This motivates the need to build systems that have…

Detecting rare events, those defined to give rise to high impact but have a low probability of occurring, is a challenge in a number of domains including meteorological, environmental, financial and economic. The use of machine learning to…

To find failure events and their likelihoods in flight-critical systems, we investigate the use of an advanced black-box stress testing approach called adaptive stress testing. We analyze a trajectory predictor from a developmental…

Event prediction is the ability of anticipating future events, i.e., future real-world occurrences, and aims to support the user in deciding on actions that change future events towards a desired state. An event prediction method learns the…

Starting from two case histories, where only after thorough Failure Analysis the suddenly appearance of a failure was linked to much earlier events, the possibility of improving the reliability and of adjusting the reliability prediction…

Prediction of failures in real-world robotic systems either requires accurate model information or extensive testing. Partial knowledge of the system model makes simulation-based failure prediction unreliable. Moreover, obtaining such…

The paper presents a new efficient and robust method for rare event probability estimation for computational models of an engineering product or a process returning categorical information only, for example, either success or failure. For…

Aircraft performance models play a key role in airline operations, especially in planning a fuel-efficient flight. In practice, manufacturers provide guidelines which are slightly modified throughout the aircraft life cycle via the tuning…

Rare events are occurrences that take place with a significantly lower frequency than more common regular events. In manufacturing, predicting such events is particularly important, as they lead to unplanned downtime, shortening equipment…

Accurate and efficient prediction of aeroengine performance is of paramount importance for engine design, maintenance, and optimization endeavours. However, existing methodologies often struggle to strike an optimal balance among predictive…

Rare events are events that are expected to occur infrequently, or more technically, those that have low probabilities (say, order of $10^{-3}$ or less) of occurring according to a probability model. In the context of uncertainty…

Predictive maintenance is used in industrial applications to increase machine availability and optimize cost related to unplanned maintenance. In most cases, predictive maintenance applications use output from sensors, recording physical…

In this paper we address the use of rare event computation techniques to estimate small over-threshold probabilities of observables in determin-istic dynamical systems. We demonstrate that the genealogical particle analysis algorithms can…