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In online selective conformal inference, data arrives sequentially, and prediction intervals are constructed only when an online selection rule is met. Since online selections may break the exchangeability between the selected test datum…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-03-24 Yusuf Sale , Aaditya Ramdas

Online testing procedures aim to control the extent of false discoveries over a sequence of hypothesis tests, allowing for the possibility that early-stage test results influence the choice of hypotheses to be tested in later stages.…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-10-18 Aaron Fisher

We study the problem of post-selection predictive inference in an online fashion. To avoid devoting resources to unimportant units, a preliminary selection of the current individual before reporting its prediction interval is common and…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-12-02 Yajie Bao , Yuyang Huo , Haojie Ren , Changliang Zou

Multiple hypothesis testing, a situation when we wish to consider many hypotheses, is a core problem in statistical inference that arises in almost every scientific field. In this setting, controlling the false discovery rate (FDR), which…

统计理论 · 数学 2019-03-19 Shiyun Chen , Shiva Kasiviswanathan

Multiple hypothesis testing is a core problem in statistical inference and arises in almost every scientific field. Given a set of null hypotheses $\mathcal{H}(n) = (H_1,\dotsc, H_n)$, Benjamini and Hochberg introduced the false discovery…

统计理论 · 数学 2017-07-10 Adel Javanmard , Andrea Montanari

This article proposes novel rules for false discovery rate control (FDRC) geared towards online anomaly detection in time series. Online FDRC rules allow to control the properties of a sequence of statistical tests. In the context of…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-12-07 Quentin Rebjock , Barış Kurt , Tim Januschowski , Laurent Callot

Conformal inference is a popular tool for constructing prediction intervals (PI). We consider here the scenario of post-selection/selective conformal inference, that is PIs are reported only for individuals selected from an unlabeled test…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-03-13 Yajie Bao , Yuyang Huo , Haojie Ren , Changliang Zou

When hypotheses are tested in a stream and real-time decision-making is needed, online sequential hypothesis testing procedures are needed. Furthermore, these hypotheses are commonly partitioned into groups by their nature. For example, the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-06-05 Runqiu Wang , Ran Dai

A new online multiple testing procedure is described in the context of anomaly detection, which controls the False Discovery Rate (FDR). An accurate anomaly detector must control the false positive rate at a prescribed level while keeping…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-12-17 Etienne Krönert , Alain Célisse , Dalila Hattab

Controlling the false discovery rate (FDR) is a powerful approach to multiple testing. In many applications, the tested hypotheses have an inherent hierarchical structure. In this paper, we focus on the fixed sequence structure where the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2016-11-11 Gavin Lynch , Wenge Guo , Sanat K. Sarkar , Helmut Finner

Advanced computing and data acquisition technologies have made possible the collection of high-dimensional data streams in many fields. Efficient online monitoring tools which can correctly identify any abnormal data stream for such data…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-12-15 Jun Li

Confidence intervals (CIs) are instrumental in statistical analysis, providing a range estimate of the parameters. In modern statistics, selective inference is common, where only certain parameters are highlighted. However, this selective…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-09-17 Tzviel Frostig , Yoav Benjamini , Ruth Heller

When testing multiple hypotheses, a suitable error rate should be controlled even in exploratory trials. Conventional methods to control the False Discovery Rate (FDR) assume that all p-values are available at the time point of test…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-12-21 Sonja Zehetmayer , Martin Posch , Franz Koenig

We propose an online false discovery rate (FDR) controlling method based on conditional local FDR (LIS), designed for infectious disease datasets that are discrete and exhibit complex dependencies. Unlike existing online FDR methods, which…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-02-23 Seohwa Hwang , Junyong Park

Modern biomedical research frequently involves testing multiple related hypotheses, while maintaining control over a suitable error rate. In many applications the false discovery rate (FDR), which is the expected proportion of false…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-09-27 David S. Robertson , James M. S. Wason

The False Discovery Rate (FDR) is a new statistical procedure to control the number of mistakes made when performing multiple hypothesis tests, i.e. when comparing many data against a given model hypothesis. The key advantage of FDR is that…

In hypothesis testing, a false discovery occurs when a hypothesis is incorrectly rejected due to noise in the sample. When adaptively testing multiple hypotheses, the probability of a false discovery increases as more tests are performed.…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-10-22 Wanrong Zhang , Gautam Kamath , Rachel Cummings

Consider the online testing of a stream of hypotheses where a real--time decision must be made before the next data point arrives. The error rate is required to be controlled at {all} decision points. Conventional \emph{simultaneous testing…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-03-03 Bowen Gang , Wenguang Sun , Weinan Wang

Suppose that one can construct a valid $(1-\delta)$-confidence interval (CI) for each of $K$ parameters of potential interest. If a data analyst uses an arbitrary data-dependent criterion to select some subset $S$ of parameters, then the…

统计理论 · 数学 2024-07-02 Ziyu Xu , Ruodu Wang , Aaditya Ramdas

Conformal methods provide prediction sets for outcomes with confidence guarantees. We study their use in a selective inference setting, where inference is performed only when the prediction set is informative. The analyst may consider as…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-22 Israela Solomon , Etienne Roquain , Saharon Rosset , Ruth Heller
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