相关论文: Shrinkage Estimators in Online Experiments
We present a linear regression method for predictions on a small data set making use of a second possibly biased data set that may be much larger. Our method fits linear regressions to the two data sets while penalizing the difference…
Randomized experiments are the gold standard for evaluating the effects of changes to real-world systems. Data in these tests may be difficult to collect and outcomes may have high variance, resulting in potentially large measurement error.…
This paper presents a novel approach to constructing estimators that dominate the classical James-Stein estimator under the quadratic loss for multivariate normal means. Building on Stein's risk representation, we introduce a new sufficient…
The James-Stein estimator is an estimator of the multivariate normal mean and dominates the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) under squared error loss. The original work inspired great interest in developing shrinkage estimators for a…
Parameter estimates for associated genetic variants, report ed in the initial discovery samples, are often grossly inflated compared to the values observed in the follow-up replication samples. This type of bias is a consequence of the…
Rare event simulation and rare event probability estimation are important tasks within the analysis of systems subject to uncertainty and randomness. Simultaneously, accurately estimating rare event probabilities is an inherently difficult…
In recent years there has been an increasing interest in the use of relational event models for dynamic social network analysis. The basis of these models is the concept of an "event", defined as a triplet of time, sender, and receiver of…
We introduce functional adaptive shrinkage (FASH), an empirical Bayes method for joint analysis of observation units in which each unit estimates an effect function at several values of a continuous condition variable. The ideas in this…
Randomized controlled trials play an important role in how Internet companies predict the impact of policy decisions and product changes. In these `digital experiments', different units (people, devices, products) respond differently to the…
We propose an improved LASSO estimation technique based on Stein-rule. We shrink classical LASSO estimator using preliminary test, shrinkage, and positive-rule shrinkage principle. Simulation results have been carried out for various…
Given n experiment subjects with potentially heterogeneous covariates and two possible treatments, namely active treatment and control, this paper addresses the fundamental question of determining the optimal accuracy in estimating the…
Mean-variance portfolio decisions that combine prediction and optimisation have been shown to have poor empirical performance. Here, we consider the performance of various shrinkage methods by their efficient frontiers under different…
We propose an empirical Bayes estimator for two-way effects in linked data sets based on a novel prior that leverages patterns of assortative matching observed in the data. To capture limited mobility we model the bipartite graph associated…
To investigate a dilemma of statistical and computational efficiency faced by long-run variance estimators, we propose a decomposition of kernel weights in a quadratic form and some online inference principles. These proposals allow us to…
In this work, we propose low-complexity adaptive biased estimation algorithms, called group-based shrinkage estimators (GSEs), for parameter estimation and interference suppression scenarios with mechanisms to automatically adjust the…
Most bandit algorithm designs are purely theoretical. Therefore, they have strong regret guarantees, but also are often too conservative in practice. In this work, we pioneer the idea of algorithm design by minimizing the empirical Bayes…
Small area estimation (SAE) plays a central role in survey statistics and epidemiology, providing reliable estimates for domains with limited sample sizes. The multivariate Fay-Herriot model has been extensively used for this purpose,…
Consider estimating the n by p matrix of means of an n by p matrix of independent normally distributed observations with constant variance, where the performance of an estimator is judged using a p by p matrix quadratic error loss function.…
Stein's paradox holds considerable sway in high-dimensional statistics, highlighting that the sample mean, traditionally considered the de facto estimator, might not be the most efficacious in higher dimensions. To address this, the…
Phase II basket trials are popular tools to evaluate efficacy of a new treatment targeting genetic alteration common to a set of different cancer histologies. Efficient designs are obtained by pooling data from the different arms (e.g.,…