相关论文: Constraints in Random Effects Age-Period-Cohort Mo…

Graphical structures estimated by causal learning algorithms from time series data can provide misleading causal information if the causal timescale of the generating process fails to match the measurement timescale of the data. Existing…

Aggregate shocks affect most households' and firms' decisions. Using three stylized models we show that inference based on cross-sectional data alone generally fails to correctly account for decision making of rational agents facing…

The theory of reinforcement learning has focused on two fundamental problems: achieving low regret, and identifying $\epsilon$-optimal policies. While a simple reduction allows one to apply a low-regret algorithm to obtain an…

We introduce new methods of analysing time to event data via extended versions of the proportional hazards and accelerated failure time (AFT) models. In many time to event studies, the time of first observation is arbitrary, in the sense…

There is a growing literature on design-based methods to estimate average treatment effects (ATEs) for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) for full sample analyses. This article extends these methods to estimate ATEs for discrete subgroups…

This article reviews recent advances in fixed effect estimation of panel data models for long panels, where the number of time periods is relatively large. We focus on semiparametric models with unobserved individual and time effects, where…

We propose a semiparametric model to study the effect of covariates on the distribution of a censored event time while making minimal assumptions about the censoring mechanism. The result is a partially identified model, in the sense that…

A general random effects model is proposed that allows for continuous as well as discrete distributions of the responses. Responses can be unrestricted continuous, bounded continuous, binary, ordered categorical or given in the form of…

In causal inference, interference occurs when the treatment of one unit may affect the outcomes of other units. The goal of this work is to serve as a guide to the use of linear outcome modeling for estimating causal effects in settings…

A different general philosophy, to be called Full Randomness (FR), for the analysis of random effects models is presented, involving a notion of reducing or preferably eliminating fixed effects, at least formally. For example, under FR…

Unmeasured confounding is a threat to causal inference in observational studies. In recent years, use of negative controls to mitigate unmeasured confounding has gained increasing recognition and popularity. Negative controls have a…

Explicit modelling of between-study heterogeneity is essential in network meta-analysis (NMA) to ensure valid inference and avoid overstating precision. While the additive random-effects (RE) model is the conventional approach, the…

Lack of independence in the residuals from linear regression motivates the use of random effect models in many applied fields. We start from the one-way anova model and extend it to a general class of one-factor Bayesian mixed models,…

We study principal components regression (PCR) in an asymptotic high-dimensional regression setting, where the number of data points is proportional to the dimension. We derive exact limiting formulas for the estimation and prediction…

Foundation models often generate unreliable answers, while heuristic uncertainty estimators fail to fully distinguish correct from incorrect outputs, causing users to accept erroneous answers without any statistical guarantee. We address…

Guarded Interaction Trees are a structure and a fully formalized framework for representing higher-order computations with higher-order effects in Rocq. We present an extension of Guarded Interaction Trees to support formal reasoning about…

Inference for the parameters indexing generalised linear models is routinely based on the assumption that the model is correct and a priori specified. This is unsatisfactory because the chosen model is usually the result of a data-adaptive…

Counterfactual Explanations (CE) face several unresolved challenges, such as ensuring stability, synthesizing multiple CEs, and providing plausibility and sparsity guarantees. From a more practical point of view, recent studies [Pawelczyk…

Evaluating rare-event forecasts is challenging because standard metrics collapse as event prevalence declines. Measures such as F1-score, AUPRC, MCC, and accuracy induce degenerate thresholds -- converging to zero or one -- and their values…

As learning solutions reach critical applications in social, industrial, and medical domains, the need to curtail their behavior has become paramount. There is now ample evidence that without explicit tailoring, learning can lead to biased,…