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The population-attributable fraction (PAF) quantifies the public health impact of a harmful exposure. Despite being a measure of significant importance an estimand accommodating complicated time-to-event data is not clearly defined. We…

The population-attributable fraction (PAF) is a popular epidemiological measure for the burden of a harmful exposure within a population. It is often interpreted causally as proportion of preventable cases after an elimination of exposure.…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-08-22 Maja von Cube , Martin Schumacher , Martin Wolkewitz

The population-attributable fraction (PAF) expresses the proportion of events that can be ascribed to a certain exposure in a certain population. It can be strongly time-dependent because either exposure incidence or excess risk may change…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-12-27 Johan Steen , Pawel Morzywolek , Wim Van Biesen , Johan Decruyenaere , Stijn Vansteelandt

Population attributable fractions aim to quantify the proportion of the cases of an outcome (for example, a disease) that would have been avoided had no individuals in the population been exposed to a given exposure. This quantity thus…

The estimation of the potential impact fraction (including the population attributable fraction) with continuous exposure data frequently relies on strong distributional assumptions. However, these assumptions are often violated if the…

The attributable fraction among the exposed (\textbf{AF}$_e$), also known as the attributable risk or excess fraction among the exposed, is the proportion of disease cases among the exposed that could be avoided by eliminating the exposure.…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-12-30 Kan Chen , Jing Cheng , M. Elizabeth Halloran , Dylan S. Small

Smoking is one of the preventable threats to human health and is a major risk factor for lung cancer, upper aero-digestive cancer, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Estimating and forecasting the smoking attributable fraction (SAF)…

应用统计 · 统计学 2019-10-29 Yicheng Li , Adrian E. Raftery

Population attributable risk (PAR) is used in epidemiology to predict the impact of removing a risk factor from the population. Until recently, no standard approach for calculating confidence intervals or the variance for PAR was available…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-05-28 Sarah Pirikahu , Geoffrey Jones , Martin Hazelton

Forecasting disease spread is a critical tool to help public health officials design and plan public health interventions. However, the expected future state of an epidemic is not necessarily well defined as disease spread is inherently…

种群与进化 · 定量生物学 2026-05-05 Mariah C. Boudreau , Andrea J. Allen , Nicholas J. Roberts , Antoine Allard , Laurent Hébert-Dufresne

Population-adjusted indirect comparisons (PAICs) are widely used to synthesize evidence when randomized controlled trials enroll different patient populations and head-to-head comparisons are unavailable. Although PAICs adjust for observed…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-02-20 Conor Chandler , Jack Ishak

An individualized risk prediction model that dynamically updates the probability of a clinical event from a specific cause is valuable for physicians to be able to optimize personalized treatment strategies in real-time by incorporating all…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-04-22 Qing Liu , Gong Tang , Joseph P. Costantino , Chung-Chou H. Chang

In panel experiments, we randomly assign units to different interventions, measuring their outcomes, and repeating the procedure in several periods. Using the potential outcomes framework, we define finite population dynamic causal effects…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-05-28 Iavor Bojinov , Ashesh Rambachan , Neil Shephard

The attributable risk, often called the population attributable risk, is in many epidemiological contexts a more relevant measure of exposure-disease association than the excess risk, relative risk, or odds ratio. When estimating…

统计理论 · 数学 2008-12-31 Daniel B. Rubin

The use of instrumental variables for estimating the effect of an exposure on an outcome is popular in econometrics, and increasingly so in epidemiology. This increasing popularity may be attributed to the natural occurrence of instrumental…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2016-08-03 T. Martinussen , S. Vansteelandt , E. J. Tchetgen Tchetgen , D. M. Zucker

Estimating a causal effect from observational data can be biased if we do not control for self-selection. This selection is based on confounding variables that affect the treatment assignment and the outcome. Propensity score methods aim to…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2021-09-10 Daniel Jacob

It has recently become popular to define treatment effects for subsets of the target population characterized by variables not observable at the time a treatment decision is made. Characterizing and estimating such treatment effects is…

统计理论 · 数学 2007-08-30 Marshall M. Joffe , Dylan Small , Chi-Yuan Hsu

Spatial epidemiology identifies the drivers of elevated population-level disease risks, using disease counts, exposures and known confounders at the areal unit level. Poisson regression models are typically used for inference, which…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-02-03 Duncan Lee , Vinny Davies

We introduce new methods of analysing time to event data via extended versions of the proportional hazards and accelerated failure time (AFT) models. In many time to event studies, the time of first observation is arbitrary, in the sense…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2011-02-14 Matthew Sperrin , Iain Buchan

This paper develops a continuous-time filtering framework for estimating a hazard rate subject to an unobservable change-point. This framework naturally arises in both financial and insurance applications, where the default intensity of a…

数理金融 · 定量金融 2026-01-12 Matteo Buttarazzi , Claudia Ceci

Motivated by the need to analyze continuously updated data sets in the context of time-to-event modeling, we propose a novel nonparametric approach to estimate the conditional hazard function given a set of continuous and discrete…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-07-03 Daphné Aurouet , Valentin Patilea
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