相关论文: BCMA-ES II: revisiting Bayesian CMA-ES

We propose Bayesian model averaging (BMA) as a method for postprocessing the results of model-based clustering. Given a number of competing models, appropriate model summaries are averaged, using the posterior model probabilities, instead…

Regression classes modeling more than the mean of the response have found a lot of attention in the last years. Expectile regression is a special and computationally convenient case of this family of models. Expectiles offer a quantile-like…

Wishart ensemble is a useful and important random matrix model used in diverse fields. By realizing induced random mixed quantum states as Wishart ensemble with the fixed-trace one, using matrix integral technique we give a fast track to…

We consider a novel paradigm for Bayesian testing of hypotheses and Bayesian model comparison. Our alternative to the traditional construction of posterior probabilities that a given hypothesis is true or that the data originates from a…

Forecast ensembles are typically employed to account for prediction uncertainties in numerical weather prediction models. However, ensembles often exhibit biases and dispersion errors, thus they require statistical post-processing to…

For many cancer sites low-dose risks are not known and must be extrapolated from those observed in groups exposed at much higher levels of dose. Measurement error can substantially alter the dose-response shape and hence the extrapolated…

It is often of interest to combine available estimates of a similar quantity from multiple data sources. When the corresponding variances of each estimate are also available, a model should take into account the uncertainty of the estimates…

Penalized likelihood and quasi-likelihood methods dominate inference in high-dimensional linear mixed-effects models. Sampling-based Bayesian inference is less explored due to the computational bottlenecks introduced by the random effects…

Approximate Bayesian inference for neural networks is considered a robust alternative to standard training, often providing good performance on out-of-distribution data. However, Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) with high-fidelity…

We investigate the bias and error in estimates of the cosmological parameter covariance matrix, due to sampling or modelling the data covariance matrix, for likelihood width and peak scatter estimators. We show that these estimators do not…

Ensembles of forecasts are typically employed to account for the forecast uncertainties inherent in predictions of future weather states. However, biases and dispersion errors often present in forecast ensembles require statistical…

This paper proves a matrix model for the Wishart Ensemble with general covariance and general dimension parameter beta. In so doing, we introduce a new and elegant definition of Jack polynomials.

The cluster-weighted model (CWM) is a mixture model with random covariates which allows for flexible clustering and density estimation of a random vector composed by a response variable and by a set of covariates. In this class of models,…

We present a novel approach for constrained Bayesian inference. Unlike current methods, our approach does not require convexity of the constraint set. We reduce the constrained variational inference to a parametric optimization over the…

This paper extends the work of Clarke [1] on the Bayesian foundations of the biomagnetic inverse problem. It derives expressions for the expectation and variance of the a posteriori source current probability distribution given a prior…

This work is about understanding the impact of invariance and equivariance on generalisation in supervised learning. We use the perspective afforded by an averaging operator to show that for any predictor that is not equivariant, there is…

We combine a refined version of two-point step-size adaptation with the covariance matrix adaptation evolution strategy (CMA-ES). Additionally, we suggest polished formulae for the learning rate of the covariance matrix and the…

Despite the growing demand for accurate surface normal estimation models, existing methods use general-purpose dense prediction models, adopting the same inductive biases as other tasks. In this paper, we discuss the inductive biases needed…

The joint distribution of two off-diagonal Wishart matrix elements was useful in recent work on geometric probability [Finch 2010]. Not finding such formulas in the literature, we report these here.

We consider Bayesian inference in inverse regression problems where the objective is to infer about unobserved covariates from observed responses and covariates. We establish posterior consistency of such unobserved covariates in Bayesian…