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Inference after model selection presents computational challenges when dealing with intractable conditional distributions. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a common method for sampling from these distributions, but its slow convergence…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-08-22 Sifan Liu

The resolution of many large-scale inverse problems using MCMC methods requires a step of drawing samples from a high dimensional Gaussian distribution. While direct Gaussian sampling techniques, such as those based on Cholesky…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2015-06-22 Clément Gilavert , Saïd Moussaoui , Jérôme Idier

Importance sampling has been known as a powerful tool to reduce the variance of Monte Carlo estimator for rare event simulation. Based on the criterion of minimizing the variance of Monte Carlo estimator within a parametric family, we…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2013-02-11 Cheng-Der Fuh , Huei-Wen Teng , Ren-Her Wang

Many probabilistic models of interest in scientific computing and machine learning have expensive, black-box likelihoods that prevent the application of standard techniques for Bayesian inference, such as MCMC, which would require access to…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-11-30 Luigi Acerbi

As deep neural networks (DNNs) are applied to increasingly challenging problems, they will need to be able to represent their own uncertainty. Modeling uncertainty is one of the key features of Bayesian methods. Using Bernoulli dropout with…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-09-19 Patrick McClure , Nikolaus Kriegeskorte

We study the problem of reducing the variance of Monte Carlo estimators through performing suitable changes of the sampling measure which are induced by feedforward neural networks. To this end, building on the concept of vector stochastic…

计算金融 · 定量金融 2023-06-05 Aleksandar Arandjelović , Thorsten Rheinländer , Pavel V. Shevchenko

Efficient sampling of complex high-dimensional probability distributions is a central task in computational science. Machine learning methods like autoregressive neural networks, used with Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling, provide good…

统计力学 · 物理学 2021-11-11 Dian Wu , Riccardo Rossi , Giuseppe Carleo

We consider batch size selection for a general class of multivariate batch means variance estimators, which are computationally viable for high-dimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations. We derive the asymptotic mean squared error…

统计理论 · 数学 2019-07-18 Ying Liu , Dootika Vats , James M. Flegal

In this paper, we explore techniques centered around periodic sampling of model weights that provide convergence improvements on gradient update methods (vanilla \acs{SGD}, Momentum, Adam) for a variety of vision problems (classification,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-03-23 Samarth Tripathi , Jiayi Liu , Unmesh Kurup , Mohak Shah , Sauptik Dhar

We develop a new sampling method to estimate eigenvector centrality on incomplete networks. Our goal is to estimate this global centrality measure having at disposal a limited amount of data. This is the case in many real-world scenarios…

社会与信息网络 · 计算机科学 2020-10-29 Nicolò Ruggeri , Caterina De Bacco

A new approach of obtaining stratified random samples from statistically dependent random variables is described. The proposed method can be used to obtain samples from the input space of a computer forward model in estimating expectations…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-11-25 Anirban Mondal , Abhijit Mandal

Sampling-based motion planning methods, while effective in high-dimensional spaces, often suffer from inefficiencies due to irregular sampling distributions, leading to suboptimal exploration of the configuration space. In this paper, we…

机器人学 · 计算机科学 2025-08-28 Makram Chahine , T. Konstantin Rusch , Zach J. Patterson , Daniela Rus

Probability density function estimation with weighted samples is the main foundation of all adaptive importance sampling algorithms. Classically, a target distribution is approximated either by a non-parametric model or within a parametric…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-10-16 Julien Demange-Chryst , François Bachoc , Jérôme Morio , Timothé Krauth

In many domains, the exploration process of reinforcement learning will be too costly as it requires trying out suboptimal policies, resulting in a need for off-policy evaluation, in which a target policy is evaluated based on data…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-05-07 David M. Bossens , Philip S. Thomas

Adaptive importance sampling for stochastic optimization is a promising approach that offers improved convergence through variance reduction. In this work, we propose a new framework for variance reduction that enables the use of mixtures…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-04-01 Zalán Borsos , Sebastian Curi , Kfir Y. Levy , Andreas Krause

We study the typical learning properties of the recently introduced Soft Margin Classifiers (SMCs), learning realizable and unrealizable tasks, with the tools of Statistical Mechanics. We derive analytically the behaviour of the learning…

无序系统与神经网络 · 物理学 2009-11-07 Sebastian Risau-Gusman , Mirta B. Gordon

We prove a theorem justifying the regularity conditions which are needed for Path Sampling in Factor Models. We then show that the remaining ingredient, namely, MCMC for calculating the integrand at each point in the path, may be seriously…

统计计算 · 统计学 2013-02-22 Ritabrata Dutta , Jayanta K. Ghosh

We study Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods operating in primary sample space and their interactions with multiple sampling techniques. We observe that incorporating the sampling technique into the state of the Markov Chain, as done in…

图形学 · 计算机科学 2017-04-25 Benedikt Bitterli , Wenzel Jakob , Jan Novák , Wojciech Jarosz

Seismic inversion is essential for geophysical exploration and geological assessment, but it is inherently subject to significant uncertainty. This uncertainty stems primarily from the limited information provided by observed seismic data,…

地球物理 · 物理学 2024-09-12 Luping Qu , Mauricio Araya-Polo , Laurent Demanet

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods asymptotically sample from complex probability distributions. The pseudo-marginal MCMC framework only requires an unbiased estimator of the unnormalized probability distribution function to construct…

统计计算 · 统计学 2016-05-25 Iain Murray , Matthew M. Graham