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Adaptive Monte Carlo methods are very efficient techniques designed to tune simulation estimators on-line. In this work, we present an alternative to stochastic approximation to tune the optimal change of measure in the context of…

概率论 · 数学 2009-10-23 Benjamin Jourdain , Jérôme Lelong

In the following article we provide an exposition of exact computational methods to perform parameter inference from partially observed network models. In particular, we consider the duplication attachment (DA) model which has a likelihood…

统计计算 · 统计学 2013-06-20 Junshan Wang , Ajay Jasra , Maria De Iorio

Many machine learning problems involve Monte Carlo gradient estimators. As a prominent example, we focus on Monte Carlo variational inference (MCVI) in this paper. The performance of MCVI crucially depends on the variance of its stochastic…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-07-05 Alexander Buchholz , Florian Wenzel , Stephan Mandt

Monte Carlo (MC) sampling algorithms are an extremely widely-used technique to estimate expectations of functions f(x), especially in high dimensions. Control variates are a very powerful technique to reduce the error of such estimates, but…

机器学习 · 统计学 2016-06-08 Brendan D. Tracey , David H. Wolpert

Simulated annealing - moving from a tractable distribution to a distribution of interest via a sequence of intermediate distributions - has traditionally been used as an inexact method of handling isolated modes in Markov chain samplers.…

计算物理 · 物理学 2007-05-23 Radford M. Neal

Data subsampling has become widely recognized as a tool to overcome computational and economic bottlenecks in analyzing massive datasets. We contribute to the development of adaptive design for estimation of finite population…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-07-08 Henrik Imberg , Xiaomi Yang , Carol Flannagan , Jonas Bärgman

Importance sampling is a widely used technique to reduce the variance of a Monte Carlo estimator by an appropriate change of measure. In this work, we study importance sam- pling in the framework of diffusion process and consider the change…

概率论 · 数学 2018-03-28 Carsten Hartmann , Christof Schütte , Marcus Weber , Wei Zhang

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are essential tools in computational statistics for sampling from unnormalised probability distributions, but can be fragile when targeting high-dimensional, multimodal, or complex target…

Deep neural network training spends most of the computation on examples that are properly handled, and could be ignored. We propose to mitigate this phenomenon with a principled importance sampling scheme that focuses computation on…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-10-29 Angelos Katharopoulos , François Fleuret

Many contemporary machine learning models require extensive tuning of hyperparameters to perform well. A variety of methods, such as Bayesian optimization, have been developed to automate and expedite this process. However, tuning remains…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-02-25 Setareh Ariafar , Zelda Mariet , Ehsan Elhamifar , Dana Brooks , Jennifer Dy , Jasper Snoek

We explore efficient estimation of statistical quantities, particularly rare event probabilities, for stochastic reaction networks. Consequently, we propose an importance sampling (IS) approach to improve the Monte Carlo (MC) estimator…

数值分析 · 数学 2024-03-12 Chiheb Ben Hammouda , Nadhir Ben Rached , Raúl Tempone , Sophia Wiechert

Stochastic approximation Monte Carlo (SAMC) has recently been proposed by Liang, Liu and Carroll [J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 102 (2007) 305--320] as a general simulation and optimization algorithm. In this paper, we propose to improve its…

统计理论 · 数学 2009-08-26 Faming Liang

Practitioners of Bayesian statistics have long depended on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to obtain samples from intractable posterior distributions. Unfortunately, MCMC algorithms are typically serial, and do not scale to the large…

机器学习 · 统计学 2015-06-11 Maxim Rabinovich , Elaine Angelino , Michael I. Jordan

The Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampling algorithm exploits Hamiltonian dynamics to construct efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), which has become increasingly popular in machine learning and statistics. Since HMC uses the gradient…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-06-04 Minghao Gu , Shiliang Sun

We consider the efficient use of an approximation within Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), with subsequent importance sampling (IS) correction of the Markov chain inexact output, leading to asymptotically exact inference. We detail…

统计计算 · 统计学 2019-04-15 Jordan Franks

In this paper we study simulation-based methods for estimating gradients in stochastic networks. We derive a new method of calculating weak derivative estimator using importance sampling transform, and our method has less computational cost…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-03-28 Cheng Jie , Michael C Fu

In this paper, we introduce efficient ensemble Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling methods for Bayesian computations in the univariate stochastic volatility model. We compare the performance of our ensemble MCMC methods with an…

统计计算 · 统计学 2014-12-10 Alexander Y. Shestopaloff , Radford M. Neal

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) offer robust uncertainty quantification in model predictions, but training them presents a significant computational challenge. This is mainly due to the problem of sampling multimodal posterior distributions…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-01-14 Ratneel Deo , Scott Sisson , Jody M. Webster , Rohitash Chandra

The problem of sampling constrained continuous distributions has frequently appeared in many machine/statistical learning models. Many Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) sampling methods have been adapted to handle different types of…

统计计算 · 统计学 2023-02-21 Shiwei Lan , Lulu Kang

We describe an adaptive importance sampling algorithm for rare events that is based on a dual stochastic control formulation of a path sampling problem. Specifically, we focus on path functionals that have the form of cumulate generating…

动力系统 · 数学 2019-01-30 Omar Kebiri , Lara Neureither , Carsten Hartmann