相关论文: Emergent regularities and scaling in armed conflic…

We present longitudinal analysis of the evolution of inter-organizational disaster coordination networks during natural disasters. We suggest that social networks are a useful paradigm for exploring this complex phenomenon from both…

The emerging field of the Science of Cities has unveiled previously undiscovered facets of urban life. Contrary to the expectation of chaotic behaviour influenced solely by cultural and geographic factors, cities globally exhibit universal…

We present a new model for extinction in which species evolve in bursts or `avalanches', during which they become on average more susceptible to environmental stresses such as harsh climates and so are more easily rendered extinct. Results…

Avalanche statistics of various threshold activated dynamical systems are known to depend on the magnitude of the drive, or stress, on the system. Such dependencies exist for earthquake size distributions, in sheared granular avalanches,…

Online platforms provide an infrastructure for social movements, leaving digital traces that can be modelled as networks to quantify how information, participation, and coordination emerge during episodes of collective action and evolve…

Forest-fire and avalanche models support the notion that frequent catastrophes prevent the growth of very large populations and as such prevent rare large-scale catastrophes. We show that this notion is not universal. A new model class…

In tropical regions, fires propagate readily in grasslands but typically consume only edges of forest patches. Thus forest patches grow due to tree propagation and shrink by fires in surrounding grasslands. The interplay between these…

In disordered elastic systems, driven by displacing a parabolic confining potential adiabatically slowly, all advance of the system is in bursts, termed avalanches. Avalanches have a finite extension in time, which is much smaller than the…

Spatial distribution of the human population is distinctly heterogeneous, e.g. showing significant difference in the population density between urban and rural areas. In the historical perspective, i.e. on the timescale of centuries, the…

We investigate structural features and processes associated with the onset of systemic conflict using an approach which integrates complex systems theory with network modeling and analysis. We present a signed network model of cooperation…

Extending the central concept of recurrence times for a point process to recurrent events in space-time allows us to characterize seismicity as a record breaking process using only spatiotemporal relations among events. Linking record…

The role of correlations in self-organised critical (SOC) phenomena is investigated by studying the Abelian Manna Model (AMM) in two dimensions. Local correlations of the debris left behind after avalanches are destroyed by re-arranging…

Predictions of fatalities from violent conflict on the PRIO-GRID-month (pgm) level are characterized by high levels of uncertainty, limiting their usefulness in practical applications. We discuss the two main sources of uncertainty for this…

Urban population scaling of resource use, creativity metrics, and human behaviors has been widely studied. These studies have not looked in detail at the full range of human environments which represent a continuum from the most rural to…

We found that models of evolving random networks exhibit dynamic scaling similar to scaling of growing surfaces. It is demonstrated by numerical simulations of two variants of the model in which nodes are added as well as removed [Phys.…

This chapter introduces flood and drought through the understanding of the water cycle. In addition to the water cycle, we consider the energy cycle. The floods and droughts have strong regional and seasonal characteristics. The causes of…

Studies on interpersonal conflict have a long history and contain many suggestions for conflict typology. We use this as the basis of a novel annotation scheme and release a new dataset of situations and conflict aspect annotations. We then…

Online social networks have become primary means of communication. As they often exhibit undesirable effects such as hostility, polarisation or echo chambers, it is crucial to develop analytical tools that help us better understand them. In…

Online communities exist in many forms and sizes, and are a source of considerable influence for individuals and organizations. Yet, there is limited insight into why some online communities are sustainable, while others cease to exist. We…

Coastal flooding drives considerable risks to many communities, but projections of future flood risks are deeply uncertain. The paucity of observations of extreme events often motivates the use of statistical approaches to model the…