相关论文: Emergent regularities and scaling in armed conflic…

Many systems in nature are conjectured to exist at a critical point, including the brain and earthquake faults. The primary reason for this conjecture is that the distribution of clusters (avalanches of firing neurons in the brain or…

We investigate the complex spatio-temporal dynamics in avalanche driven surface growth by means of scaling theory. We study local activity statistics, avalanche kinetics, and temporal correlations in the global interface velocity, obtaining…

Scale-invariant avalanches -- with events of all sizes following power-law distributions -- are considered critical. Above the upper critical dimension of four, the mean-field solution with a robust $3/2$ size exponent describes the…

We study the avalanche statistics observed in a minimal random growth model. The growth is governed by a reproduction rate obeying a probability distribution with finite mean a and variance va. These two control parameters determine if the…

Natural disasters affect hundreds of millions of people worldwide every year. Early warning, humanitarian response and recovery mechanisms can be improved by using big data sources. Measuring the different dimensions of the impact of…

Financial markets convert the incremental arrival of information into asset price changes. In a sandpile model grains of sand represent bits of data, and the size of an avalanche, governed by a scaling law, is linked to price volatility.…

Having reliable estimates of the occurrence rates of extreme events is highly important for insurance companies, government agencies and the general public. The rarity of an extreme event is typically expressed through its return period,…

Publicly traded companies are fundamental units of contemporary economies and markets and are important mechanisms through which humans interact with their environments. Understanding the general properties that underlie the processes of…

Information-communication technology promotes collaborative environments like Wikipedia where, however, controversiality and conflicts can appear. To describe the rise, persistence, and resolution of such conflicts we devise an extended…

Using lightning strikes as an example, two possible schemes are discussed for the attribution of changes in event frequency to climate change, and estimating the cost associated with them. The schemes determine the fraction of events that…

We use a discrete-time formulation to study the asymmetric avalanche process [Phys. Rev. Lett. vol. 87, 084301 (2001)] on a finite ring and obtain an exact expression for the average avalanche size of particles as a function of toppling…

This article illustrates an approach to forecasting change in conflict fatalities designed to address the complexity of the drivers and processes of armed conflicts. The design of this approach is based on two main choices. First, to…

This study extends classical models of spreading epidemics to describe the phenomenon of contagious public outrage, which eventually leads to the spread of violence following a disclosure of some unpopular political decisions and/or…

We analyze the timescales of conflict decision-making in a primate society. We present evidence for multiple, periodic timescales associated with social decision-making and behavioral patterns. We demonstrate the existence of periodicities…

Urban scaling laws relate socio-economic, behavioral, and physical variables to the population size of cities and allow for a new paradigm of city planning, and an understanding of urban resilience and economies. Independently of culture…

A collective chaotic phase with power law scaling of activity events is observed in a disordered mean field network of purely excitatory leaky integrate-and-fire neurons with short-term synaptic plasticity. The dynamical phase diagram…

We study the growth dynamics of the size of manufacturing firms considering competition and normal distribution of competency. We start with the fact that all components of the system struggle with each other for growth as happened in real…

The fluctuation scaling law has universally been observed in a wide variety of phenomena. For counting processes describing the number of events occurred during time intervals, it is expressed as a power function relationship between the…

Motivated by the fact that empirical time series of earthquakes exhibit long-range correlations in space and time and the Gutenberg-Richter distribution of magnitudes, we propose a simple fault model that can account for these types of…

The massive proliferation of social media data represents a transformative opportunity for conflict studies and for tracking the proliferation and use of weaponry, as conflicts are increasingly documented in these online spaces. At the same…