相关论文: Malaria Incidence in the Philippines: Prediction u…

We assessed the validity of one of the most frequently used methods to estimate cancer incidence, on the basis of cancer mortality data and the incidence-to-mortality ratio IMR, the IMR method. Using the previous 15 year cancer mortality…

Autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models are widely used for analyzing time series data. However, standard likelihood-based inference methodology for ARMA models has avoidable limitations. We show that currently accepted standards for…

Studies in malaria control cover many areas such as medicine, sociology, biology, mathematic, physic, computer science and so forth. Researches in the realm of mathematic are conducted to predict the occurrence of the disease and to support…

Mass campaigns with antimalarial drugs are potentially a powerful tool for local elimination of malaria, yet current diagnostic technologies are insufficiently sensitive to identify all individuals who harbor infections. At the same time,…

We present a deterministic mathematical model for malaria transmission with waning immunity. The model consists of five non-linear system of differential equations. We used next generation matrix to derive the basic reproduction number…

Chikungunya is an emerging threat for health security all over the world which is spreading very fast. Researches for proper forecasting of the incidence rate of chikungunya has been going on in many places in which DARPA has done a very…

Gaussian process (GP) based statistical surrogates are popular, inexpensive substitutes for emulating the outputs of expensive computer models that simulate real-world phenomena or complex systems. Here, we discuss the evolution of dynamic…

Dynamic event prediction, using joint modeling of survival time and longitudinal variables, is extremely useful in personalized medicine. However, the estimation of joint models including many longitudinal markers is still a computational…

With emerging prevalence beyond traditionally endemic regions, the global burden of dengue disease is forecasted to be one of the fastest growing. With limited direct treatment or vaccination currently available, prevention through vector…

This paper introduces an alternative procedure for estimating the prevalence of international migration at the municipal level in Colombia. The new methodology uses the empirical best linear unbiased predictor based on a Fay-Herriot model…

In practice, several time series exhibit long-range dependence or persistence in their observations, leading to the development of a number of estimation and prediction methodologies to account for the slowly decaying autocorrelations. The…

Retrospective cohorts can be extracted from Electronic Health Records (EHR) to study prevalence, time until disease or event occurrence and cure proportion in real world scenarios. However, EHR are collected for patient care rather than…

Understanding the prevalence of key demographic and health indicators in small geographic areas and domains is of global interest, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where vital registration data is sparse and household…

According to the World Malaria Report of 2022, 247 million cases of malaria and 619,000 related deaths were reported in 2021. This highlights the predominance of the disease, especially in the tropical and sub-tropical regions of Africa,…

We introduce a new method for inference in stochastic epidemic models which uses recursive multinomial approximations to integrate over unobserved variables and thus circumvent likelihood intractability. The method is applicable to a class…

Malaria is one of the deadliest infectious diseases globally, causing hundreds of thousands of deaths each year. It disproportionately affects young children, with two-thirds of fatalities occurring in under-fives. Individuals acquire…

This is a case study discussing the supervised artificial neural network for the purpose of forecasting with comparison of the Box-Jenkins methodology by using the data of well known emergency service Rescue 1122. We fits a variety of…

Respiratory diseases represent one of the most significant economic burdens on healthcare systems worldwide. The variation in the increasing number of cases depends greatly on climatic seasonal effects, socioeconomic factors, and pollution.…

This paper derives a Minimum Message Length (MML) criterion for the model selection of the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) time series model. The MML87 performances on the ARMA model compared with other well known model selection…

Epidemiology simulations have become a fundamental tool in the fight against the epidemics of various infectious diseases like AIDS and malaria. However, the complicated and stochastic nature of these simulators can mean their output is…