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The rapid worldwide spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) demonstrated the potential threat an infectious disease poses in a closely interconnected and interdependent world. Here we introduce a probabilistic model which…

Lung cancer is the leading cause of death among different types of cancers. Every year, the lives lost due to lung cancer exceed those lost to pancreatic, breast, and prostate cancer combined. The survival rate for lung cancer patients is…

Lung cancer is the primary cause of cancer-related mortality, claiming approximately 1.79 million lives globally in 2020, with an estimated 2.21 million new cases diagnosed within the same period. Among these, Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer…

The United Nations (UN) issued official probabilistic population projections for all countries to 2100 in July 2015. This was done by simulating future levels of total fertility and life expectancy from Bayesian hierarchical models, and…

We examine US County-level observational data on Lung Cancer mortality rates in 2012 and overall Circulatory Respiratory mortality rates in 2016 as well as their "Top Ten" potential causes from Federal or State sources. We find that these…

An estimated 300 million people worldwide suffer from asthma, and this number is expected to increase to 400 million by 2025. Approximately 250,000 people die prematurely each year from asthma out of which, almost all deaths are avoidable.…

To analyze and project age-specific mortality or morbidity rates age-period-cohort (APC) models are very popular. Bayesian approaches facilitate estimation and improve predictions by assigning smoothing priors to age, period and cohort…

Lung cancer remains one of the leading causes of cancer-related mortality, yet most survival models rely only on baseline factors and overlook posttreatment variables that reflect disease progression. To address this gap, we applied Cox…

The population-attributable fraction (PAF) quantifies the public health impact of a harmful exposure. Despite being a measure of significant importance an estimand accommodating complicated time-to-event data is not clearly defined. We…

A common goal in modeling demographic rates is to compare two or more groups. For ex- ample comparing mortality rates between men and women or between geographic regions may reveal health inequalities. A popular class of models for…

We propose a probabilistic mortality forecasting model that can be applied to derive forecasts for populations with regular and irregular mortality developments. Our model (1) uses rates of mortality improvement to model dynamic age…

This paper evaluates the performance of the following time series forecasting models - Simple Exponential Smoothing (SES), Holt's Double Exponential Smoothing (HDES), and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) - in predicting lung…

Lung cancer (LC) remains the primary cause of cancer-related mortality, largely due to late-stage diagnoses. Effective strategies for early detection are therefore of paramount importance. In recent years, machine learning (ML) has…

The distribution of deaths by cause provides crucial information for public health planning, response, and evaluation. About 60% of deaths globally are not registered or given a cause, limiting our ability to understand disease…

In cancer epidemiology using population-based data, regression models for the excess mortality hazard is a useful method to estimate cancer survival and to describe the association between prognosis factors and excess mortality. This method…

The population-attributable fraction (PAF) expresses the proportion of events that can be ascribed to a certain exposure in a certain population. It can be strongly time-dependent because either exposure incidence or excess risk may change…

Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) is a neurodegenerative disease characterized by a rapid motor decline, leading to respiratory failure and subsequently to death. In this context, researchers have sought for models to automatically…

Lung cancer is one of the major causes of death worldwide, and Vietnam is not an exception. This disease is the second most common type of cancer globally and the second most common cause of death in Vietnam, just after liver cancer, with…

In epidemiological or demographic studies, with variable age at onset, a typical quantity of interest is the incidence of a disease (for example the cancer incidence). In these studies, the individuals are usually highly heterogeneous in…

Improving health worldwide will require rigorous quantification of population-level trends in health status. However, global-level surveys are not available, forcing researchers to rely on fragmentary country-specific data of varying…