相关论文: Non-Stationary Dividend-Price Ratios

This study examines the effects of macroeconomic policies on financial markets using a novel approach that combines Machine Learning (ML) techniques and causal inference. It focuses on the effect of interest rate changes made by the US…

We consider an insurance company modelling its surplus process by a Brownian motion with drift. Our target is to maximise the expected exponential utility of discounted dividend payments, given that the dividend rates are bounded by some…

This study presents a long-term alternative formula for stock price variation described by a geometric Brownian motion on the basis of median instead of mean or expected values. The proposed method is motivated by the observation made in…

In this study, we introduce new estimation methods for the required rate of returns on equity and liabilities of private and public companies using the stochastic dividend discount model (DDM). To estimate the required rate of return on…

We propose and study a simple model of dynamical redistribution of capital in a diversified portfolio. We consider a hypothetical situation of a portfolio composed of N uncorrelated stocks. Each stock price follows a multiplicative random…

Reinforcement learning (RL) under changing environment models many real-world applications via nonstationary Markov Decision Processes (MDPs), and hence gains considerable interest. However, theoretical studies on nonstationary MDPs in the…

We consider a non-stationary variant of a sequential stochastic optimization problem, in which the underlying cost functions may change along the horizon. We propose a measure, termed variation budget, that controls the extent of said…

In this study, we introduce new estimation methods for the required rate of return of the stochastic dividend discount model (DDM) and the private company valuation model, which will appear below. To estimate the required rate of return, we…

We re-visit the classical problem of optimal payment of dividends and determine the degree to which the diffusion approximation serves as a valid approximation of the classical risk model for this problem. Our results parallel some of those…

We study discrete-time discounted constrained Markov decision processes (CMDPs) on Borel spaces with unbounded reward functions. In our approach the transition probability functions are weakly or set-wise continuous. The reward functions…

Most reinforcement learning methods are based upon the key assumption that the transition dynamics and reward functions are fixed, that is, the underlying Markov decision process is stationary. However, in many real-world applications, this…

At the peak of the tech bubble, only 0.57% of market valuation comes from dividends in the next year. Taking the ratio of total market value to the value of one-year dividends, we obtain a valuation-based duration of 175 years. In contrast,…

The price multiplier effect provides precious insight into the behavior of investors during episodes of speculative trading. It tells us that the higher the price of an asset is (within a set of similar assets) the more its price is likely…

This paper considers a distributed stochastic optimization problem where the goal is to minimize the time average of a cost function subject to a set of constraints on the time averages of a related stochastic processes called penalties. We…

We hypothesize that portfolio sorts based on the V/P ratio generate excess returns and consist of companies that are undervalued for prolonged periods. Results, for the US market show that high V/P portfolios outperform low V/P portfolios…

In recent years, more and more investors use technical analysis methods in their own trading. Evaluating the effectiveness of technical analysis has become more feasible due to increasing computing capability and blooming public data, which…

Markov decision processes (MDPs) are used to model a wide variety of applications ranging from game playing over robotics to finance. Their optimal policy typically maximizes the expected sum of rewards given at each step of the decision…

Classical portfolio optimization methods typically determine an optimal capital allocation through the implicit, yet critical, assumption of statistical time-invariance. Such models are inadequate for real-world markets as they employ…

This paper investigates the optimization problem of an infinite stage discrete time Markov decision process (MDP) with a long-run average metric considering both mean and variance of rewards together. Such performance metric is important…

The method and characteristics of several approaches to the pricing of discretely monitored arithmetic Asian options on stocks with discrete, absolute dividends are described. The contrast between method behaviors for options with an Asian…