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When searching over a large parameter space for anomalies such as events, peaks, objects, or particles, there is a large probability that spurious signals with seemingly high significance will be found. This is known as the look-elsewhere…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2020-10-09 Adrian E. Bayer , Uros Seljak

The two statistical methods, namely the frequentist and the Bayesian methods, are both commonly used for probabilistic inference in many scientific situations. However, it is not straightforward to interpret the result of one approach in…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2023-09-01 Alan H. Guth , Mohammad Hossein Namjoo

While gravitational waves have not yet been measured directly, data analysis from detection experiments commonly includes an upper limit statement. Such upper limits may be derived via a frequentist or Bayesian approach; the theoretical…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2015-03-19 Christian Röver , Chris Messenger , Reinhard Prix

The model representing two independent Poisson processes, labelled as "signal" and "background" and both contributing at the same time to the total number of counted events, is considered from a Bayesian point of view. This is a widely used…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2012-01-16 Diego Casadei

We describe and use two different statistical approaches to try and detect low-frequency solar oscillations in Sun-as-a-star data: a frequentist approach and a Bayesian approach. We have used frequentist statistics to search contemporaneous…

太阳与恒星天体物理 · 物理学 2015-05-18 A. -M. Broomhall , W. J. Chaplin , Y. Elsworth , T. Appourchaux , R. New

In many hypothesis testing applications, we have mixed priors, with well-motivated informative priors for some parameters but not for others. The Bayesian methodology uses the Bayes factor and is helpful for the informative priors, as it…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2022-10-05 Jakob Robnik , Uroš Seljak

In high-energy astrophysics, it is common practice to account for the background overlaid with the counts from the source of interest with the help of auxiliary measurements carried on by pointing off-source. In this "on/off" measurement,…

天体物理仪器与方法 · 物理学 2014-12-12 Diego Casadei

Observational astrophysics consists of making inferences about the Universe by comparing data and models. The credible intervals placed on model parameters are often as important as the maximum a posteriori probability values, as the…

天体物理仪器与方法 · 物理学 2021-12-15 Will J. Percival , Oliver Friedrich , Elena Sellentin , Alan Heavens

The objective Bayesian treatment of a model representing two independent Poisson processes, labelled as "signal" and "background" and both contributing additively to the total number of counted events, is considered. It is shown that the…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2015-04-16 Diego Casadei

Previous studies based on Bayesian methods have shown that the constraints on cosmological parameters from the Baryonic Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS) full-shape data using the Effective Field Theory of Large Scale Structure…

宇宙学与河外天体物理 · 物理学 2023-09-11 Emil Brinch Holm , Laura Herold , Théo Simon , Elisa G. M. Ferreira , Steen Hannestad , Vivian Poulin , Thomas Tram

We study the application of a Bayesian method to extract relevant information from data for the case of a signal consisting of two or more decaying particles and its background. The method takes advantage of the dependence that exists in…

高能物理 - 唯象学 · 物理学 2023-06-06 Ezequiel Alvarez

We propose a Bayesian approach to the problem of multi-reference alignment -- the recovery of signals from noisy, randomly shifted observations. While existing frequentist methods accurately recover the signal at arbitrarily low…

信号处理 · 电气工程与系统科学 2025-10-15 Axel Janson , Joakim Andén

We develop a method to perform an untargeted Bayesian search for anisotropic gravitational-wave backgrounds that can efficiently and accurately reconstruct the background intensity map. Our method employs an analytic marginalization of the…

广义相对论与量子宇宙学 · 物理学 2023-09-06 Adrian Ka-Wai Chung , Nicolas Yunes

The search for gamma-ray counterparts to gravitational-wave events with the CALET Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (CGBM) requires accurate and robust background modeling. Previous CALET observing runs (O3 and O4) relied on averaged pre/post-event…

高能天体物理现象 · 物理学 2025-11-20 Bisweswar Sen

This paper presents a study of the large-sample behavior of the posterior distribution of a structural parameter which is partially identified by moment inequalities. The posterior density is derived based on the limited information…

统计理论 · 数学 2010-01-13 Yuan Liao , Wenxin Jiang

To the frequentist who computes posteriors, not all priors are useful asymptotically: in this paper Schwartz's 1965 Kullback-Leibler condition is generalised to enable frequentist interpretation of convergence of posterior distributions…

统计理论 · 数学 2017-11-28 B. J. K. Kleijn

Bayesian analysis has become an indispensable tool across many different cosmological fields including the study of gravitational waves, the Cosmic Microwave Background and the 21-cm signal from the Cosmic Dawn among other phenomena. The…

天体物理仪器与方法 · 物理学 2023-12-19 Harry T. J. Bevins , William J. Handley , Pablo Lemos , Peter H. Sims , Eloy de Lera Acedo , Anastasia Fialkov , Justin Alsing

This paper investigates the consistency of a posterior distribution in the single-measurement fractional Calder\'on problem with additive Gaussian noise. We consider a Bayesian framework with rescaled and Gaussian sieve priors, using a…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-11-17 Pu-Zhao Kow , Janne Nurminen , Jesse Railo

Like light, gravitational waves are gravitationally lensed by intervening massive astrophysical objects, such as galaxies, clusters, black holes, and stars, resulting in a variety of potentially observable gravitational-wave lensing…

A Bayesian approach is presented for detecting and characterising the signal from discrete objects embedded in a diffuse background. The approach centres around the evaluation of the posterior distribution for the parameters of the discrete…

天体物理学 · 物理学 2009-11-07 M. P. Hobson , C. McLachlan
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