相关论文: Unreasonable effectiveness of Monte Carlo

This article attempts to place the emergence of probabilistic numerics as a mathematical-statistical research field within its historical context and to explore how its gradual development can be related both to applications and to a modern…

Within the last fifteen years, a program of establishing relationships between algorithmic randomness and almost-everywhere theorems in analysis and ergodic theory has developed. In harmonic analysis, Franklin, McNicholl, and Rute…

We develop a technique for generalising from data in which models are samplers represented as program text. We establish encouraging empirical results that suggest that Markov chain Monte Carlo probabilistic programming inference techniques…

This paper proposes a new theory and methodology to tackle the problem of unifying distributed analyses and inferences on shared parameters from multiple sources, into a single coherent inference. This surprisingly challenging problem…

Computation of extreme quantiles and tail-based risk measures using standard Monte Carlo simulation can be inefficient. A method to speed up computations is provided by importance sampling. We show that importance sampling algorithms,…

Our focus is on the design and analysis of efficient Monte Carlo methods for computing tail probabilities for the suprema of Gaussian random fields, along with conditional expectations of functionals of the fields given the existence of…

A number of algorithms have been developed to solve probabilistic inference problems on belief networks. These algorithms can be divided into two main groups: exact techniques which exploit the conditional independence revealed when the…

Numerical Generalized Randomized Hamiltonian Monte Carlo is introduced, as a robust, easy to use and computationally fast alternative to conventional Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for continuous target distributions. A wide class of…

In applications of imprecise probability, analysts must compute lower (or upper) expectations, defined as the infimum of an expectation over a set of parameter values. Monte Carlo methods consistently approximate expectations at fixed…

Distortion risk measures play a critical role in quantifying risks associated with uncertain outcomes. Accurately estimating these risk measures in the context of computationally expensive simulation models that lack analytical tractability…

Bayesian models have become very popular over the last years in several fields such as signal processing, statistics, and machine learning. Bayesian inference requires the approximation of complicated integrals involving posterior…

Quantum Monte Carlo data are often afflicted with distributions that resemble lognormal probability distributions and consequently their statistical analysis can not be based on simple Gaussian assumptions. To this extent a method is…

The EM algorithm is a powerful tool for maximum likelihood estimation with missing data. In practice, the calculations required for the EM algorithm are often intractable. We review numerous methods to circumvent this intractability, all of…

In this work we detail the application of a fast convolution algorithm computing high dimensional integrals to the context of multiplicative noise stochastic processes. The algorithm provides a numerical solution to the problem of…

We provide a framework which admits a number of ``marginal'' sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms as particular cases -- including the marginal particle filter [Klaas et al., 2005, in: Proceedings of Uncertainty in Artificial…

Combinatorial optimization problems are central to both practical applications and the development of optimization methods. While classical and quantum algorithms have been refined over decades, machine learning--assisted approaches are…

Pricing options is an important problem in financial engineering. In many scenarios of practical interest, financial option prices associated to an underlying asset reduces to computing an expectation w.r.t.~a diffusion process. In general,…

The problem of optimising functions with intractable gradients frequently arise in machine learning and statistics, ranging from maximum marginal likelihood estimation procedures to fine-tuning of generative models. Stochastic approximation…

We introduce a class of Monte Carlo estimators that aim to overcome the rapid growth of variance with dimension often observed for standard estimators by exploiting the target's independence structure. We identify the most basic…

In general, the statistical simulation approaches are referred to as the Monte Carlo methods as a whole. The broad class of the Monte Carlo methods involves the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques that attract the attention of…