相关论文: Countering Violent Extremism: A mathematical model

The concept of resilience embodies the quest towards the ability to sustain shocks, to suffer from these shocks as little as possible, for the shortest time possible, and to recover with the full functionalities that existed before the…

Randomized ensemble classifiers (RECs), where one classifier is randomly selected during inference, have emerged as an attractive alternative to traditional ensembling methods for realizing adversarially robust classifiers with limited…

Many physical systems have underlying safety considerations that require that the policy employed ensures the satisfaction of a set of constraints. The analytical formulation usually takes the form of a Constrained Markov Decision Process…

Our aim is to explain mathematical programs with equilibrium constraints (MPECs), motivate them through applications, present the main equivalent formulations of equilibrium constraints, and summarize the basic existence theory for optimal…

Epidemiological models describe the spread of an infectious disease within a population. They capture microscopic details on how the disease is passed on among individuals in various different ways, while making predictions about the state…

Verifying probabilistic forecasts for extreme events is a highly active research area because popular media and public opinions are naturally focused on extreme events, and biased conclusions are readily made. In this context, classical…

The proliferation of terrorism is a serious concern in national and international security, as its spread is seen as an existential threat to Western liberal democracies. Understanding and effectively modelling the spread of terrorism…

The frequency of disruptive and newly emerging threats (e.g. man-made attacks--cyber and physical attacks; extreme natural events--hurricanes, earthquakes, and floods) has escalated dramatically in the last decade. Impacts of these events…

Cross-validation (CV) is one of the most popular tools for assessing and selecting predictive models. However, standard CV suffers from high computational cost when the number of folds is large. Recently, under the empirical risk…

Even though strongly correlated systems are abundant, only a few exceptional cases admit analytical solutions. In this paper we present a large class of solvable systems with strong correlations.. We consider a set of $N$ independent and…

For constrained linear systems with bounded disturbances and parametric uncertainty, we propose a robust adaptive model predictive control strategy with online parameter estimation. Constraints enforcing persistently exciting closed loop…

Mathematical models are vital interpretive and predictive tools used to assist in the understanding of cell migration. There are typically two approaches to modelling cell migration: either micro-scale, discrete or macro-scale, continuum.…

Survival analysis deals with modeling the time until an event occurs, and accurate probability estimates are crucial for decision-making, particularly in the competing-risks setting where multiple events are possible. While recent work has…

It is important to understand to what extent, and in what perspectives, cyber attacks can be predicted. Despite its evident importance, this problem was not investigated until very recently, when we proposed using the innovative methodology…

Extreme Value Theory (EVT) is one of the most commonly used approaches in finance for measuring the downside risk of investment portfolios, especially during financial crises. In this paper, we propose a novel approach based on EVT called…

The increasing use of machine learning in safety-critical domains amplifies the risk of adversarial threats, especially data poisoning attacks that corrupt training data to degrade performance or induce unsafe behavior. Most existing…

In multiple domains such as malware detection, automated driving systems, or fraud detection, classification algorithms are susceptible to being attacked by malicious agents willing to perturb the value of instance covariates to pursue…

One straightforward metric to evaluate a survival prediction model is based on the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) -- the average of the absolute difference between the time predicted by the model and the true event time, over all subjects.…

We consider numerical approaches for deterministic, finite-dimensional optimal control problems whose dynamics depend on unknown or uncertain parameters. We seek to amortize the solution over a set of relevant parameters in an offline stage…

The need for control strategies that can address dynamic system uncertainty is becoming increasingly important. In this work, we propose a Model Predictive Control by quantifying the risk of failure in our system model. The proposed control…