相关论文: On the frequency and severity of interstate wars

Decades of research has found that democratic dyads rarely exhibit violent tendencies, making the democratic peace arguably the principal finding of Peace Science. However, the democratic peace rests upon a dyadic understanding of conflict.…

We present a basis for studying questions of cause and effect in statistics which subsumes and reconciles the models proposed by Pearl, Robins, Rubin and others, and which, as far as mathematical notions and notation are concerned, is…

Civil unrest is a powerful form of collective human dynamics, which has led to major transitions of societies in modern history. The study of collective human dynamics, including collective aggression, has been the focus of much discussion…

Event occurrence is not only subject to the environmental changes, but is also facilitated by the events that have occurred in a system. Here, we develop a method for estimating such extrinsic and intrinsic factors from a single series of…

The position of an invasion front, propagating into an unstable state, fluctuates because of the shot noise coming from the discreteness of reacting particles and stochastic character of the reactions and diffusion. A recent macroscopic…

This study examines whether there has been a decline in the risk of death by battle during wars, testing the 'long peace' hypothesis. The analysis relies on the Expanded War Dataset (Gleditsch, 2004) covering intra- and inter-state wars…

Poisson's equation plays a fundamental role as a tool for performance evaluation and optimization of Markov chains. For continuous-time birth-death chains with possibly unbounded transition and cost rates as addressed herein, when…

The American Indian war lasted over one hundred years, and is a major event in the history of North America. As expected, since the war commenced in late eighteenth century, casualty records surrounding this conflict contain numerous…

We study the severity of conflict-related violence in Colombia at an unprecedented granular scale in space and across time. Splitting the data into different geographical regions and different historically-relevant eras, we uncover…

Barrier crossing is a widespread phenomenon across natural and engineering systems. While an abundant cross-disciplinary literature on the topic has emerged over the years, the stochastic underpinnings of the process are yet to be linked…

We examine an inconsistency in theories of violent-relaxation by Lynden-Bell and Nakamura. The inconsistency arises from the non-transitive nature of these theories: a system that under goes a violent-relaxation, relaxes and then upon an…

Consider a graph where the sites are distributed in space according to a Poisson point process on $\mathbb R^n$. We study a population evolving on this network, with individuals jumping between sites with a rate which decreases…

It is shown that all the Frequentist methods are equivalent from a statistical point of view, but the physical significance of the confidence intervals depends on the method. The Bayesian Ordering method is presented and confronted with the…

A continuous flow model of infantry behavior, based on conservation of individuals and tracking of subunit identity, has been developed in sufficient detail that it can now be applied to a realistic simulation of a historical battle.…

Forest-fire and avalanche models support the notion that frequent catastrophes prevent the growth of very large populations and as such prevent rare large-scale catastrophes. We show that this notion is not universal. A new model class…

We investigate the role of networks of alliances in preventing (multilateral) interstate wars. We first show that, in the absence of international trade, no network of alliances is peaceful and stable. We then show that international trade…

Armed conflict exhibits regularities beyond known power law distributions of fatalities and duration over varying culture and geography. We systematically cluster conflict reports from a database of $10^5$ events from Africa spanning 20…

In this paper the generalization of the Poisson distribution is derived for the case when each consecutive event changes event rate. A simple formula for the probability of observing of a given number of events for the selected period of…

The dynamics of many social, technological and economic phenomena are driven by individual human actions, turning the quantitative understanding of human behavior into a central question of modern science. Current models of human dynamics,…

The massive diffusion of online social media allows for the rapid and uncontrolled spreading of conspiracy theories, hoaxes, unsubstantiated claims, and false news. Such an impressive amount of misinformation can influence policy…