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It is argued that there is a need for fat-tailed distributions that become thin in the extreme tail. A 3-parameter distribution is introduced that visually resembles the t-distribution and interpolates between the normal distribution and…

统计理论 · 数学 2022-02-08 Rose D Baker

How to estimate the uncertainty of a given model is a crucial problem. Current calibration techniques treat different classes equally and thus implicitly assume that the distribution of training data is balanced, but ignore the fact that…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2023-04-14 Jiahao Chen , Bing Su

The objective of Vertical Federated Learning (VFL) is to collectively train a model using features available on different devices while sharing the same users. This paper focuses on the saddle point reformulation of the VFL problem via the…

We study sampling from a target distribution ${\nu_* = e^{-f}}$ using the unadjusted Langevin Monte Carlo (LMC) algorithm. For any potential function $f$ whose tails behave like ${\|x\|^\alpha}$ for ${\alpha \in [1,2]}$, and has…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-05-28 Murat A. Erdogdu , Rasa Hosseinzadeh

Adaptive importance sampling is a class of techniques for finding good proposal distributions for importance sampling. Often the proposal distributions are standard probability distributions whose parameters are adapted based on the…

统计计算 · 统计学 2021-03-10 Topi Paananen , Juho Piironen , Paul-Christian Bürkner , Aki Vehtari

Adaptive sampling algorithms are modern and efficient methods that dynamically adjust the sample size throughout the optimization process. However, they may encounter difficulties in risk-averse settings, particularly due to the challenge…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2025-02-17 Sandra Pieraccini , Tommaso Vanzan

We propose a family of variational approximations to Bayesian posterior distributions, called $\alpha$-VB, with provable statistical guarantees. The standard variational approximation is a special case of $\alpha$-VB with $\alpha=1$. When…

统计理论 · 数学 2018-02-09 Yun Yang , Debdeep Pati , Anirban Bhattacharya

Probabilistic forecasts are typically obtained using state-of-the-art statistical and machine learning models, with model parameters estimated by optimizing a proper scoring rule over a set of training data. If the model class is not…

应用统计 · 统计学 2026-05-05 Jakob Benjamin Wessel , Maybritt Schillinger , Frank Kwasniok , Sam Allen

Semantic segmentation usually suffers from a long-tail data distribution. Due to the imbalanced number of samples across categories, the features of those tail classes may get squeezed into a narrow area in the feature space. Towards a…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2023-06-06 Yuchao Wang , Jingjing Fei , Haochen Wang , Wei Li , Tianpeng Bao , Liwei Wu , Rui Zhao , Yujun Shen

Variational inference has become one of the most widely used methods in latent variable modeling. In its basic form, variational inference employs a fully factorized variational distribution and minimizes its KL divergence to the posterior.…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-01-29 Robert Bamler , Cheng Zhang , Manfred Opper , Stephan Mandt

In this paper, we introduce a new class of models for spatial data obtained from max-convolution processes based on indicator kernels with random shape. We show that this class of models have appealing dependence properties including tail…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-10-17 Pavel Krupskii , Raphaël Huser

In variational inference, the benefits of Bayesian models rely on accurately capturing the true posterior distribution. We propose using neural samplers that specify implicit distributions, which are well-suited for approximating complex…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-11-10 Anshuk Uppal , Kristoffer Stensbo-Smidt , Wouter Boomsma , Jes Frellsen

Robust Bayesian methods for high-dimensional regression problems under diverse sparse regimes are studied. Traditional shrinkage priors are primarily designed to detect a handful of signals from tens of thousands of predictors in the…

统计理论 · 数学 2024-10-25 Se Yoon Lee , Peng Zhao , Debdeep Pati , Bani K. Mallick

Variational Bayesian inference and (collapsed) Gibbs sampling are the two important classes of inference algorithms for Bayesian networks. Both have their advantages and disadvantages: collapsed Gibbs sampling is unbiased but is also…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2012-06-18 Max Welling , Yee Whye Teh , Hilbert Kappen

We introduce Tail-Safe, a deployability-oriented framework for derivatives hedging that unifies distributional, risk-sensitive reinforcement learning with a white-box control-barrier-function (CBF) quadratic-program (QP) safety layer…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-10-07 Jian'an Zhang

Variational inference uses optimization, rather than integration, to approximate the marginal likelihood, and thereby the posterior, in a Bayesian model. Thanks to advances in computational scalability made in the last decade, variational…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-01-04 Jens Sjölund

Robust estimation has played an important role in statistical and machine learning. However, its applications to functional linear regression are still under-developed. In this paper, we focus on Huber's loss with a diverging robustness…

统计理论 · 数学 2024-09-18 Ling Peng , Xiaohui Liu , Heng Lian

Variational inference, as an alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling, has played a transformative role in enabling scalable computation for complex Bayesian models. Nevertheless, existing approaches often depend on either rigid…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-21 Somjit Roy , Pritam Dey , Debdeep Pati , Bani K. Mallick

Semi-implicit variational inference (SIVI) is a powerful framework for approximating complex posterior distributions, but training with the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence can be challenging due to high variance and bias in…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-06-06 Tobias Pielok , Bernd Bischl , David Rügamer

The variational autoencoder (VAE) is a powerful generative model that can estimate the probability of a data point by using latent variables. In the VAE, the posterior of the latent variable given the data point is regularized by the prior…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-12-30 Hiroshi Takahashi , Tomoharu Iwata , Yuki Yamanaka , Masanori Yamada , Satoshi Yagi