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Classical information-theoretic generalization bounds typically control the generalization gap through KL-based mutual information and therefore rely on boundedness or sub-Gaussian tails via the moment generating function (MGF). In many…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-04-14 Huiming Zhang , Binghan Li , Wan Tian , Qiang Sun

Bayesian inference for high-dimensional inverse problems is computationally costly and requires selecting a suitable prior distribution. Amortized variational inference addresses these challenges via a neural network that approximates the…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-01-19 Ali Siahkoohi , Gabrio Rizzuti , Rafael Orozco , Felix J. Herrmann

Temporal difference (TD) learning with linear function approximation (linear TD) is a classic and powerful prediction algorithm in reinforcement learning. While it is well-understood that linear TD converges almost surely to a unique point,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-03-25 Jiuqi Wang , Shangtong Zhang

This article proposes a new method of truncated estimation to estimate the tail index $\alpha$ of the extremely heavy-tailed distribution with infinite mean or variance. We not only present two truncated estimators $\hat{\alpha}$ and…

统计理论 · 数学 2022-09-13 F. Q. Tang , D. Han

This paper introduces a flexible framework for the estimation of the conditional tail index of heavy tailed distributions. In this framework, the tail index is computed from an auxiliary linear regression model that facilitates estimation…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2024-09-23 João Nicolau , Paulo M. M. Rodrigues

Modern variational inference (VI) uses stochastic gradients to avoid intractable expectations, enabling large-scale probabilistic inference in complex models. VI posits a family of approximating distributions q and then finds the member of…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-02-24 Christian A. Naesseth , Fredrik Lindsten , David Blei

Recent progress in variational inference has paid much attention to the flexibility of variational posteriors. One promising direction is to use implicit distributions, i.e., distributions without tractable densities as the variational…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-02-26 Jiaxin Shi , Shengyang Sun , Jun Zhu

This paper considers reparameterization invariant Bayesian point estimates and credible regions of model parameters for scientific inference and communication. The effect of intrinsic loss function choice in Bayesian intrinsic estimates and…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-09-23 Aki Vehtari

How can we perform efficient inference and learning in directed probabilistic models, in the presence of continuous latent variables with intractable posterior distributions, and large datasets? We introduce a stochastic variational…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-12-13 Diederik P Kingma , Max Welling

One of the core problems of modern statistics is to approximate difficult-to-compute probability densities. This problem is especially important in Bayesian statistics, which frames all inference about unknown quantities as a calculation…

统计计算 · 统计学 2018-05-11 David M. Blei , Alp Kucukelbir , Jon D. McAuliffe

Shrinkage estimators that possess the ability to produce sparse solutions have become increasingly important to the analysis of today's complex datasets. Examples include the LASSO, the Elastic-Net and their adaptive counterparts.…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-02-09 Hongmei Liu , J. Sunil Rao

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) hold great promise as a flexible and principled solution to deal with uncertainty when learning from finite data. Among approaches to realize probabilistic inference in deep neural networks, variational Bayes…

Recent work used importance sampling ideas for better variational bounds on likelihoods. We clarify the applicability of these ideas to pure probabilistic inference, by showing the resulting Importance Weighted Variational Inference (IWVI)…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2018-10-30 Justin Domke , Daniel Sheldon

We propose a new testing procedure about the tail weight parameter of multivariate Student $t$ distributions by having recourse to the Le Cam methodology. Our test is asymptotically as efficient as the classical likelihood ratio test, but…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2014-04-10 Christophe Ley , Anouk Neven

Variational Inference makes a trade-off between the capacity of the variational family and the tractability of finding an approximate posterior distribution. Instead, Boosting Variational Inference allows practitioners to obtain…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-05-20 Gideon Dresdner , Saurav Shekhar , Fabian Pedregosa , Francesco Locatello , Gunnar Rätsch

Features in machine learning problems are often time-varying and may be related to outputs in an algebraic or dynamical manner. The dynamic nature of these machine learning problems renders current higher order accelerated gradient descent…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2019-05-29 Joseph E. Gaudio , Travis E. Gibson , Anuradha M. Annaswamy , Michael A. Bolender

We propose a transformation capable of altering the tail properties of a distribution, motivated by extreme value theory, which can be used as a layer in a normalizing flow to approximate multivariate heavy tailed distributions. We apply…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-11-02 Tennessee Hickling , Dennis Prangle

Excellent tail performance is crucial for modern machine learning tasks, such as algorithmic fairness, class imbalance, and risk-sensitive decision making, as it ensures the effective handling of challenging samples within a dataset. Tail…

信息检索 · 计算机科学 2024-02-29 Riku Togashi , Tatsushi Oka , Naoto Ohsaka , Tetsuro Morimura

We introduce a general class of continuous univariate distributions with positive support obtained by transforming the class of two-piece distributions. We show that this class of distributions is very flexible, easy to implement, and…

应用统计 · 统计学 2015-11-06 Francisco J. Rubio , Yili Hong

Variance reduction is a family of powerful mechanisms for stochastic optimization that appears to be helpful in many machine learning tasks. It is based on estimating the exact gradient with some recursive sequences. Previously, many papers…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2025-11-07 Aleksandr Shestakov , Valery Parfenov , Aleksandr Beznosikov