相关论文: A Statistical Exploration of Duckworth-Lewis Metho…

In this paper, we compare the performance of two methods for estimating Bayesian networks from data containing exogenous variables and random effects. The first method is fully Bayesian in which a prior distribution is placed on the…

In the cup game, an adversary distributes 1 unit of water among $n$ cups every time step. The player then selects a single cup from which to remove 1 unit of water. In the bamboo trimming problem, the adversary must choose fixed rates for…

Rainfall is an essential hydrological component, and most of the economic activities of an agrarian country like Bangladesh depend on rainfall. An accurate rainfall forecast can help make necessary decisions and reduce the damages caused by…

We generalize the approach of Liu and Lawrence (1999) for multiple changepoint problems where the number of changepoints is unknown. The approach is based on dynamic programming recursion for efficient calculation of the marginal…

In many competitive settings, from education to politics, rules do not reward effort evenly, and thresholds (e.g., grade cutoffs or electoral majorities) make some moments disproportionately important. Success thus depends on efficiently…

Distributed Lag Models (DLMs) and similar regression approaches such as MIDAS have been used for many decades in econometrics and more recently to investigate how poor air quality adversely affects human health. In this paper we describe…

Commercial Microwave Links (CMLs) offer dense spatial coverage for rainfall sensing but produce path-integrated measurements that make accurate ground-level reconstruction challenging. Existing methods typically oversimplify CMLs as point…

We study the classic divide-and-choose method for equitably allocating divisible goods between two players who are rational, self-interested Bayesian agents. The players have additive values for the goods. The prior distributions on those…

In this paper we propose a Bayesian game to allocate resources. In this game, there are $c$ units of resources to be allocated to $n$ players. Agent $i$ has a demand of $V_i$ units of resources and takes action $X_i$ according to a strategy…

We study an evolutionary game of chance in which the probabilities for different outcomes (e.g., heads or tails) depend on the amount wagered on those outcomes. The game is perhaps the simplest possible probabilistic game in which…

Traditional NBA player evaluation metrics are based on scoring differential or some pace-adjusted linear combination of box score statistics like points, rebounds, assists, etc. These measures treat performances with the outcome of the game…

Short-term (0-24 hours) precipitation forecasting is highly valuable to socioeconomic activities and public safety. However, the highly complex evolution patterns of precipitation events, the extreme imbalance between precipitation and…

Quasi-Bayesian theory uses convex sets of probability distributions and expected loss to represent preferences about plans. The theory focuses on decision robustness, i.e., the extent to which plans are affected by deviations in subjective…

ICC's current ranking system does not adequately account for key contextual factors such as home advantage, toss impact and scheduling imbalances; leading to inconsistencies in team evaluation in Test cricket. This study develops an…

While PageRank has been extensively used to rank sport tournament participants (teams or individuals), its superiority over simpler ranking methods has been never clearly demonstrated. We use sports results from 18 major leagues to…

Inspired by applications in sports where the skill of players or teams competing against each other varies over time, we propose a probabilistic model of pairwise-comparison outcomes that can capture a wide range of time dynamics. We…

With the aid of mathematical modelling (basic tool is the random walk with absorbing barriers) we derive subsequent formulas to study the effect of different versions of possible rules. For different rules the probability of winning a game,…

This study proposes a real-time control framework for cascaded hydropower systems that incorporates decision-dependent uncertainty (DDU) to capture the coupling of streamflow uncertainties across the reservoirs. The framework jointly models…

Methods have been developed to identify the probability distribution of a random vector $Z$ from information consisting of its bounded range and the probability density function or moments of a quantity of interest, $Q(Z)$. The mapping from…

This paper introduces an approach to predicting the next event in a soccer match, a challenge bearing remarkable similarities to the problem faced by Large Language Models (LLMs). Unlike other methods that severely limit event dynamics in…