相关论文: On valid descriptive inference from non-probabilit…

We elaborate on a deconvolution method, used to estimate the empirical distribution of unknown parameters, as suggested recently by Efron (2013). It is applied to estimating the empirical distribution of the 'sampling probabilities' of m…

This paper presents a general and efficient framework for probabilistic inference and learning from arbitrary uncertain information. It exploits the calculation properties of finite mixture models, conjugate families and factorization. Both…

In Bayesian nonparametric inference, random discrete probability measures are commonly used as priors within hierarchical mixture models for density estimation and for inference on the clustering of the data. Recently, it has been shown…

Invertibility conditions for observation-driven time series models often fail to be guaranteed in empirical applications. As a result, the asymptotic theory of maximum likelihood and quasi-maximum likelihood estimators may be compromised.…

Detecting and explaining anomalies is a challenging effort. This holds especially true when data exhibits strong dependencies and single measurements need to be assessed and analyzed in their respective context. In this work, we consider…

This paper provides conditions under which subsampling and the bootstrap can be used to construct estimators of the quantiles of the distribution of a root that behave well uniformly over a large class of distributions $\mathbf{P}$. These…

The paper concerns the probabilistic evaluation of plans in the presence of unmeasured variables, each plan consisting of several concurrent or sequential actions. We establish a graphical criterion for recognizing when the effects of a…

To answer questions of "causes of effects", the probability of necessity is introduced for assessing whether or not an observed outcome was caused by an earlier treatment. However, the statistical inference for probability of necessity is…

Conditional probabilities are a core concept in machine learning. For example, optimal prediction of a label $Y$ given an input $X$ corresponds to maximizing the conditional probability of $Y$ given $X$. A common approach to inference tasks…

This paper focuses on a data-rich environment where the data set has a very large cross-sectional dimension, is likely to exhibit local dependence, and yet is hard to determine the dependence ordering. Such a situation arises, for example,…

Selective inference (post-selection inference) is a methodology that has attracted much attention in recent years in the fields of statistics and machine learning. Naive inference based on data that are also used for model selection tends…

In ecological studies niche overlap is often used to quantify species interaction and dynamics. This paper develops a robust, nonparametric statistical framework for quantifying and analyzing multivariate niche overlap. Parametric methods…

This paper addresses the problem of making statistical inference about a population that can only be identified through classifier predictions. The problem is motivated by scientific studies in which human labels of a population are…

The increased availability of massive data sets provides a unique opportunity to discover subtle patterns in their distributions, but also imposes overwhelming computational challenges. To fully utilize the information contained in big…

Complex simulator-based models are now routinely used to perform inference across the sciences and engineering, but existing inference methods are often unable to account for outliers and other extreme values in data which occur due to…

The validity OF a causal model can be tested ONLY IF the model imposes constraints ON the probability distribution that governs the generated data. IN the presence OF unmeasured variables, causal models may impose two types OF constraints :…

Inference in semi-supervised (SS) settings has gained substantial attention in recent years due to increased relevance in modern big-data problems. In a typical SS setting, there is a much larger-sized unlabeled data, containing only…

The possibility of unmeasured confounding is one of the main limitations for causal inference from observational studies. There are different methods for (partially) empirically assessing the plausibility of unconfoundedness. However, most…

Many existing approaches to generalizing statistical inference amidst distribution shift operate under the covariate shift assumption, which posits that the conditional distribution of unobserved variables given observable ones is invariant…

We investigate generically applicable and intuitively appealing prediction intervals based on $k$-fold cross validation. We focus on the conditional coverage probability of the proposed intervals, given the observations in the training…