相关论文: On valid descriptive inference from non-probabilit…

Mathematical models of the real world are simplified representations of complex systems. A caveat to using mathematical models is that predicted causal effects and conditional independences may not be robust under model extensions, limiting…

We consider deconvolution from repeated observations with unknown error distribution. So far, this model has mostly been studied under the additional assumption that the errors are symmetric. We construct an estimator for the non-symmetric…

To draw scientifically meaningful conclusions and build reliable models of quantitative phenomena, cause and effect must be taken into consideration (either implicitly or explicitly). This is particularly challenging when the measurements…

In many applications, different populations are compared using data that are sampled in a biased manner. Under sampling biases, standard methods that estimate the difference between the population means yield unreliable inferences. Here we…

Attempts to replicate probabilistic reasoning in expert systems have typically overlooked a critical ingredient of that process. Probabilistic analysis typically requires extensive judgments regarding interdependencies among hypotheses and…

We consider inference procedures, conditional on an observed ancillary statistic, for regression coefficients under a linear regression setup where the unknown error distribution is specified nonparametrically. We establish conditional…

Adaptive experiments use preliminary analyses of the data to inform further course of action and are commonly used in many disciplines including medical and social sciences. Because the null hypothesis and experimental design are…

Matching a nonprobability sample to a probability sample is one strategy both for selecting the nonprobability units and for weighting them. This approach has been employed in the past to select subsamples of persons from a large panel of…

A wide variety of model explanation approaches have been proposed in recent years, all guided by very different rationales and heuristics. In this paper, we take a new route and cast interpretability as a statistical inference problem. We…

This paper describes three methods for carrying out non-asymptotic inference on partially identified parameters that are solutions to a class of optimization problems. Applications in which the optimization problems arise include estimation…

The pseudo-observation method is regularly applied to time-to-event data. However, to date such analyses have relied on not formally verified statements or ad-hoc methods regarding covariance estimation. This paper strives to close this gap…

Sample-based observability characterizes the ability to reconstruct the internal state of a dynamical system by using limited output information, i.e., when measurements are only infrequently and/or irregularly available. In this work, we…

In semi-supervised learning, the prevailing understanding suggests that observing additional unlabeled samples improves estimation accuracy for linear parameters only in the case of model misspecification. In this work, we challenge such a…

There is a growing interest in the so-called Bayesian Predictive Inference approach, which allows to perform Bayesian inference without specifying the likelihood and prior of the model, or the need of any MCMC. Instead, only a sequence of…

Especially when facing reliability data with limited information (e.g., a small number of failures), there are strong motivations for using Bayesian inference methods. These include the option to use information from physics-of-failure or…

A method is introduced for the verification of nonclassicality in terms of moments of nonclassicality quasiprobability distributions. The latter are easily obtained from experimental data and will be denoted as nonclassicality moments.…

We develop new methods to integrate experimental and observational data in causal inference. While randomized controlled trials offer strong internal validity, they are often costly and therefore limited in sample size. Observational data,…

Statistics is sometimes described as the science of reasoning under uncertainty. Statistical models provide one view of this uncertainty, but what is frequently neglected is the 'invisible' portion of uncertainty: that assumed not to exist…

Variational inference is a popular method for estimating model parameters and conditional distributions in hierarchical and mixed models, which arise frequently in many settings in the health, social, and biological sciences. Variational…

A growing body of literature attempts to learn about contagion using observational (i.e. non-experimental) data collected from a single social network. While the conclusions of these studies may be correct, the methods rely on assumptions…