相关论文: Pachinko Prediction: A Bayesian method for event p…

Mixed modeling of extreme values and random effects is relatively unexplored topic. Computational difficulties in using the maximum likelihood method for mixed models and the fact that maximum likelihood method uses available data and does…

Measuring public opinion is a key focus during democratic elections, enabling candidates to gauge their popularity and alter their campaign strategies accordingly. Traditional survey polling remains the most popular estimation technique,…

We propose a fully Bayesian approach for causal inference with multivariate categorical data based on staged tree models, a class of probabilistic graphical models capable of representing asymmetric and context-specific dependencies. To…

Human-centered systems of systems such as social networks, Internet of Things, or healthcare systems are growingly becoming major facets of modern life. Realistic models of human behavior in such systems play a significant role in their…

We introduce a novel framework for the estimation of the posterior distribution over the weights of a neural network, based on a new probabilistic interpretation of adaptive optimisation algorithms such as AdaGrad and Adam. We demonstrate…

This study provides a predictive measurement tool to examine perceived anxiety from a longitudinal perspective, using a non-intrusive machine learning approach to scale human rating of anxiety in microblogs. Results suggest that our chosen…

We propose a probabilistic modeling framework for learning the dynamic patterns in the collective behaviors of social agents and developing profiles for different behavioral groups, using data collected from multiple information sources.…

The willingness to trust predictions formulated by automatic algorithms is key in a vast number of domains. However, a vast number of deep architectures are only able to formulate predictions without an associated uncertainty. In this…

Current analysis of astronomical data are confronted with the daunting task of modeling the awkward features of astronomical data, among which heteroscedastic (point-dependent) errors, intrinsic scatter, non-ignorable data collection…

We describe the design, implementation, and evaluation of EMBERS, an automated, 24x7 continuous system for forecasting civil unrest across 10 countries of Latin America using open source indicators such as tweets, news sources, blogs,…

We propose a model of inference and heuristic decision-making in groups that is rooted in the Bayes rule but avoids the complexities of rational inference in partially observed environments with incomplete information, which are…

We present a novel methodology for predicting future outcomes that uses small numbers of individuals participating in an imperfect information market. By determining their risk attitudes and performing a nonlinear aggregation of their…

Statistical modeling of multivariate and spatial extreme events has attracted broad attention in various areas of science. Max-stable distributions and processes are the natural class of models for this purpose, and many parametric families…

We describe a new method for evaluating Bayes factors. The key idea is to introduce a hypermodel in which the competing models are components of a mixture distribution. Inference for the mixing probabilities then yields estimates of the…

We demonstrate the critical need to identify social situation and instability factors by acquiring public social satisfaction in this research. However, subject to the large amount of manual work cost in subject recruitment and data…

The Bayesian statistical paradigm uses the language of probability to express uncertainty about the phenomena that generate observed data. Probability distributions thus characterize Bayesian analysis, with the rules of probability used to…

The rich and dynamic information environment of social media provides researchers, policy makers, and entrepreneurs with opportunities to learn about social phenomena in a timely manner. However, using this data to understand social…

Bushfires are among the most destructive natural hazards in Australia, causing significant ecological, economic, and social damage. Accurate prediction of bushfire intensity is therefore essential for effective disaster preparedness and…

An important aspect of urban planning is understanding crowd levels at various locations, which typically require the use of physical sensors. Such sensors are potentially costly and time consuming to implement on a large scale. To address…

Evacuation in response to natural disasters is a complex process involving multiple decision-makers at the personal, household, community, and government levels. Consequently, many disparate factors influence who evacuates, when, and how to…