相关论文: Morbidity, mortality and the illness-death model

Recently, we have shown that the age-specific prevalence of a disease can be related to the transition rates in the illness-death model via a partial differential equation (PDE). In case of a chronic disease, we show that the PDE can be…

In this paper we investigate the flexibility of matrix distributions for the modeling of mortality. Starting from a simple Gompertz law, we show how the introduction of matrix-valued parameters via inhomogeneous phase-type distributions can…

\noindent The modal age at death is an increasingly used measure for understanding longevity and mortality patterns. However, existing estimation methods focus on point estimates, overlooking the inherent variability and uncertainty in…

The illness-death model for chronic conditions is combined with a renewal equation for the number of newborns taking into account possibly different fertility rates in the healthy and diseased parts of the population. The resulting boundary…

We use the illness-death model (IDM) for chronic conditions to derive a new analytical relation between the transition rates between the states of the IDM. The transition rates are the incidence rate (i) and the mortality rates of people…

The significance of mortality modeling extends across multiple research areas, ranging from life insurance valuation to optimal lifetime decision-making. Existing approaches, such as mortality laws and factor-based models, often fall short…

This paper generalizes a previously published differential equation that describes the relation between the age-specific incidence, remission, and mortality of a disease with its prevalence. The underlying model is a simple compartment…

Relevant events in a three state illness-death model (IDM) of a chronic disease are the diagnosis of the disease and death with or without the disease. In this article a simulation framework for populations moving in the IDM is presented.…

Mortality is different across countries, states and regions. Several empirical research works however reveal that mortality trends exhibit a common pattern and show similar structures across populations. The key element in analyzing…

The aim of this article is relating the chemical master equation (CME) to the illness-death model for chronic diseases. We show that a recently developed differential equation for the prevalence directly follows from the CME. As an…

A new stochastic method for describing mortality is proposed and explored. It is based on differences of observed times series of the transform $\log(-\log x)$ of survival probabilities which seem to follow simple patterns over the years.…

Illness-death models are a class of stochastic models inside the multi-state framework. In those models, individuals are allowed to move over time between different states related to illness and death. They are of special interest when…

We introduce a collective model for life insurance where the heterogeneity of each insured, including the health state, is modeled by a diffusion process. This model is influenced by concepts in statistical mechanics. Using the proposed…

Evaluating quality-of-life (QoL) outcomes in populations with high mortality risk is complicated by truncation by death, since QoL is undefined for individuals who do not survive to the planned measurement time. We propose a framework that…

This article describes a method to estimate the mortality rate ratio R from current status data with duration in a chronic condition in case the general mortality of the overall population is known. Apart from the general mortality, the…

The three state illness death model has been established as a general approach for regression analysis of semi competing risks data. For observational data the marginal structural models (MSM) are a useful tool, under the potential outcomes…

The illness-death model of a chronic disease consists of the states 'Normal', 'Disease' and 'Death'. In general, the transition rates between the states depend on three time scales: calendar time, age and duration of the chronic disease.…

Using formal asymptotic methods we derive a free boundary problem representing one of the simplest mathematical descriptions of the growth and death of a tumour or other biological tissue. The mathematical model takes the form of a closed…

In this paper, we advance the network theory of aging and mortality by developing a causal mathematical model for the mortality rate. First, we show that in large networks, where health deficits accumulate at nodes representing health…

BACKGROUND. The majority of countries in Africa and nearly one third of all countries require mortality models to infer complete age schedules of mortality, required for population estimates, projections/forecasts and many other tasks in…