相关论文: Solar Irradiance Forecasting Using Triple Exponent…
Solar irradiance is the primary input for all solar energy generation systems. The amount of available solar radiation over time under the local weather conditions helps to decide the optimal location, technology and size of a solar energy…
Power systems engineers are actively developing larger power plants out of photovoltaics imposing some major challenges which include its intermittent power generation and its poor dispatchability. The issue is that PV is a variable…
Accurate estimation of solar irradiance is essential for reliable modelling of solar photovoltaic (PV) power production. In Ireland's highly variable maritime climate, where ground-based measurement stations are sparsely distributed,…
This paper compares different forecasting methods and models to predict average values of solar irradiance with a sampling time of 15 min over a prediction horizon of up to 3 h. The methods considered only require historic solar irradiance…
In this paper, a stochastic model with regime switching is developed for solar photo-voltaic (PV) power in order to provide short-term probabilistic forecasts. The proposed model for solar PV power is physics inspired and explicitly…
The output of solar power generation is significantly dependent on the available solar radiation. Thus, with the proliferation of PV generation in the modern power grid, forecasting of solar irradiance is vital for proper operation of the…
Renewable Energies (RES) penetration is progressing rapidly: in France, the installed capacity of photovoltaic (PV) power rose from 26MW in 2007 to 8GW in 2017 [1]. Power generated by PV plants being highly dependent on variable weather…
When cloud layers cover photovoltaic (PV) panels, the amount of power the panels produce fluctuates rapidly. Therefore, to maintain enough energy on a power grid to match demand, utilities companies rely on reserve power sources that…
We present a novel framework for spatiotemporal photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting and use it to evaluate the reliability, sharpness, and overall performance of seven intraday PV power nowcasting models. The model suite includes…
With increasing concerns of climate change, renewable resources such as photovoltaic (PV) have gained popularity as a means of energy generation. The smooth integration of such resources in power system operations is enabled by accurate…
Due to the increasing proportion of distributed photovoltaic (PV) production in the generation mix, the knowledge of the PV generation capacity has become a key factor. In this work, we propose to compute the PV plant maximum power starting…
With the recent interest in net-zero sustainability for commercial buildings, integration of photovoltaic (PV) assets becomes even more important. This integration remains a challenge due to high solar variability and uncertainty in the…
As renewable distributed energy resources (DERs) penetrate the power grid at an accelerating speed, it is essential for operators to have accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) energy forecasting for efficient operations and planning. Generally,…
Estimation of the generated power of renewable energy resources is in general important for planning operations as well as demand balance and power quality. This paper addresses the problem of the estimation of the short-term (3-hour ahead)…
In order to enable the transition towards renewable energy sources, probabilistic energy forecasting is of critical importance for incorporating volatile power sources such as solar energy into the electrical grid. Solar energy forecasting…
Probabilistic forecasts of renewable energy production provide users with valuable information about the uncertainty associated with the expected generation. Current state-of-the-art forecasts for solar irradiance have focused on producing…
In this paper, we demonstrate the importance of embedding temporal information for an accurate prediction of solar irradiance. We have used two sets of models for forecasting solar irradiance. The first one uses only time series data of…
For short-term solar irradiance forecasting, the traditional point forecasting methods are rendered less useful due to the non-stationary characteristic of solar power. The amount of operating reserves required to maintain reliable…
This paper presents a classical estimation problem for calculating the energy generated by photovoltaic solar energy systems in the Netherlands, on a daily, annual and regional basis. We identify two data sources to construct our…
Due to the increasing integration of solar power into the electrical grid, forecasting short-term solar irradiance has become key for many applications, e.g.~operational planning, power purchases, reserve activation, etc. In this context,…