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We advocate for a new statistical principle that combines the most desirable aspects of both parameter inference and density estimation. This leads us to the predictively oriented (PrO) posterior, which expresses uncertainty as a…

Latent space models are popular for analyzing dynamic network data. We propose a variational approach to estimate the model parameters as well as the latent positions of the nodes in the network. The variational approach is much faster than…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-06-01 Yan Liu , Yuguo Chen

Variable-length Markov chains (VLMCs) are a flexible class of higher-order Markov models that admit a natural representation as context trees. Existing Bayesian methods for specifying prior distributions on tree structures rely on branching…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-11 Thiago Paulichen , Victor Freguglia

Bayesian neural networks have shown great promise in many applications where calibrated uncertainty estimates are crucial and can often also lead to a higher predictive performance. However, it remains challenging to choose a good prior…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-05-17 Vincent Fortuin , Adrià Garriga-Alonso , Mark van der Wilk , Laurence Aitchison

Employing Bayesian inference to calibrate constitutive model parameters has grown substantially in recent years. Among the available techniques, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling remains one of the most widely used approaches for…

计算工程、金融与科学 · 计算机科学 2026-04-02 Aricia Rinkens , Rodrigo L. S. Silva , Erik Quaeghebeur , Nick Jaensson , Clemens Verhoosel

In this paper, a Bayesian inference technique based on Taylor series approximation of the logarithm of the likelihood function is presented. The proposed approximation is devised for the case, where the prior distribution belongs to the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2015-10-06 Tohid Ardeshiri , Umut Orguner , Fredrik Gustafsson

Bayesian inverse problems use data to update a prior probability distribution on uncertain parameter values to a posterior distribution. Such problems arise in many structural engineering applications, but computational solution of Bayesian…

数值分析 · 数学 2026-05-26 Jakob Scheffels , Elizabeth Qian , Iason Papaioannou , Elisabeth Ullmann

Bayesian hierarchical linear models provide a natural framework to analyze nested and clustered data. Classical estimation with Markov chain Monte Carlo produces well calibrated posterior distributions but becomes computationally expensive…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-12-16 Cristian Parra-Aldana , Juan Sosa

In Bayesian learning of Gaussian graphical model structure, it is common to restrict attention to certain classes of graphs and approximate the posterior distribution by repeatedly moving from one graph to another, using MCMC or methods…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-09-01 Edmund Jones

In recent years a number of methods have been developed for automatically learning the (sparse) connectivity structure of Markov Random Fields. These methods are mostly based on L1-regularized optimization which has a number of…

机器学习 · 统计学 2012-06-26 Yutian Chen , Max Welling

In recent years a number of methods have been developed for automatically learning the (sparse) connectivity structure of Markov Random Fields. These methods are mostly based on L1-regularized optimization which has a number of…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2014-08-12 Yutian Chen , Max Welling

Many Bayesian inference problems require exploring the posterior distribution of high-dimensional parameters that represent the discretization of an underlying function. This work introduces a family of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…

统计计算 · 统计学 2016-05-03 Tiangang Cui , Kody J. H. Law , Youssef M. Marzouk

Posterior sampling is a task of central importance in Bayesian inference. For many applications in Bayesian meta-analysis and Bayesian transfer learning, the prior distribution is unknown and needs to be estimated from samples. In practice,…

统计计算 · 统计学 2024-08-06 Chenyang Zhong , Shouxuan Ji , Tian Zheng

In this work, we develop an objective Bayesian framework for the Dhillon probability distribution. We explicitly derive three objective priors: the Jeffreys prior, the overall reference prior, and the maximal data information prior. We show…

In recent times empirical likelihood has been widely applied under Bayesian framework. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are frequently employed to sample from the posterior distribution of the parameters of interest. However,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-09-07 Sanjay Chaudhuri , Teng Yin

Fluid approximations have seen great success in approximating the macro-scale behaviour of Markov systems with a large number of discrete states. However, these methods rely on the continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) having a particular…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2019-10-29 Michalis Michaelides , Jane Hillston , Guido Sanguinetti

Commercial Microwave Links (CMLs) offer dense spatial coverage for rainfall sensing but produce path-integrated measurements that make accurate ground-level reconstruction challenging. Existing methods typically oversimplify CMLs as point…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-05-08 Badr Moufad , Albina Ilina , Hai Victor Habi , Salem Lahlou , Yazid Janati , Hagit Messer , Eric Moulines

Many regularization priors for Bayesian regression assume the regression coefficients are a priori independent. In particular this is the case for standard Bayesian treatments of the lasso and the elastic net. While independence may be…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-01-01 Christopher M. Hans , Ningyi Liu

We propose a Bayesian inference framework to estimate uncertainties in inverse scattering problems. Given the observed data, the forward model and their uncertainties, we find the posterior distribution over a finite parameter field…

数值分析 · 数学 2020-11-17 Ana Carpio , Sergei Iakunin , Georg Stadler

The proposal and study of dependent prior processes has been a major research focus in the recent Bayesian nonparametric literature. In this paper, we introduce a flexible class of dependent nonparametric priors, investigate their…

统计理论 · 数学 2014-07-03 Antonio Lijoi , Bernardo Nipoti , Igor Prünster