相关论文: Mining gold from implicit models to improve likeli…

The ability to construct a realistic simulator of financial exchanges, including reproducing the dynamics of the limit order book, can give insight into many counterfactual scenarios, such as a flash crash, a margin call, or changes in…

In inference problems, we often have domain knowledge which allows us to define summary statistics that capture most of the information content in a dataset. In this paper, we present a hybrid approach, where such physics-based summaries…

When prior information is lacking, the go-to strategy for probabilistic inference is to combine a "default prior" and the likelihood via Bayes's theorem. Objective Bayes, (generalized) fiducial inference, etc. fall under this umbrella. This…

Likelihood surfaces in the parameter space of gravitational wave signals can contain many secondary maxima, which can prevent search algorithms from finding the global peak and correctly mapping the distribution. Traditional schemes to…

We analyze different types of simulations that applied researchers can use to assess whether their inference methods reliably control false-positive rates. We show that different assessments involve trade-offs, varying in the types of…

Bayesian inference typically relies on a large number of model evaluations to estimate posterior distributions. Established methods like Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Amortized Bayesian Inference (ABI) can become computationally…

Several strategies have been developed recently to ensure valid inference after model selection; some of these are easy to compute, while others fare better in terms of inferential power. In this paper, we consider a selective inference…

Data-driven surrogate models are widely used for applications such as design optimization and uncertainty quantification, where repeated evaluations of an expensive simulator are required. For most partial differential equation (PDE)…

Finding model parameters from data is an essential task in science and engineering, from weather and climate forecasts to plasma control. Previous works have employed neural networks to greatly accelerate finding solutions to inverse…

The authors propose a robust semi-parametric empirical likelihood method to integrate all available information from multiple samples with a common center of measurements. Two different sets of estimating equations are used to improve the…

We consider a class of stochastic programming problems where the implicitly decision-dependent random variable follows a nonparametric regression model with heteroscedastic error. The Clarke subdifferential and surrogate functions are not…

The increase in complexity of autonomous systems is accompanied by a need of data-driven development and validation strategies. Advances in computer graphics and cloud clusters have opened the way to massive parallel high fidelity…

The analytical continuation of correlation functions from imaginary to real time is a crucial step in lattice gauge theories, and it challenges our ability to derive non-perturbative predictions from lattice simulations. We review aspects…

Numerical simulations are crucial for modeling complex systems, but calibrating them becomes challenging when data are noisy or incomplete and likelihood evaluations are computationally expensive. Bayesian calibration offers an interesting…

Neural networks are increasingly used in complex (data-driven) simulations as surrogates or for accelerating the computation of classical surrogates. In many applications physical constraints, such as mass or energy conservation, must be…

Implementing Bayesian inference is often computationally challenging in applications involving complex models, and sometimes calculating the likelihood itself is difficult. Synthetic likelihood is one approach for carrying out inference…

This paper presents a general and efficient framework for probabilistic inference and learning from arbitrary uncertain information. It exploits the calculation properties of finite mixture models, conjugate families and factorization. Both…

Flow-based generative modeling is a powerful tool for solving inverse problems in physical sciences that can be used for sampling and likelihood evaluation with much lower inference times than traditional methods. We propose to refine flows…

Exponential random graph models (ERGMs) are a widely used framework for network data, enabling hypothesis testing on the structural mechanisms underlying observed networks. Bayesian ERGMs provide principled uncertainty quantification and…

Scientists often express their understanding of the world through a computationally demanding simulation program. Analyzing the posterior distribution of the parameters given observations (the inverse problem) can be extremely challenging.…