相关论文: Bayesian nonparametric analysis of Kingman's coale…

We present and discuss new importance sampling schemes for the approximate computation of the sample probability of observed genetic types in the infinitely many sites model from population genetics. More specifically, we extend the…

Recovery of population size history from molecular sequence data is an important problem in population genetics. Inference commonly relies on a coalescent model linking the population size history to genealogies. The high computational cost…

A Bayesian non-parametric framework for studying time-to-event data is proposed, where the prior distribution is allowed to depend on an additional random source, and may update with the sample size. Such scenarios are natural, for…

We study a universal object for the genealogy of a sample in populations with mutations: the critical birth-death process with Poissonian mutations, conditioned on its population size at a fixed time horizon. We show how this process arises…

The prediction of future insurance claims based on observed risk factors, or covariates, help the actuary set insurance premiums. Typically, actuaries use parametric regression models to predict claims based on the covariate information.…

We reconsider a nonparametric density model based on Gaussian processes. By augmenting the model with latent P\'olya--Gamma random variables and a latent marked Poisson process we obtain a new likelihood which is conjugate to the model's…

Reconstructing past population size from present day genetic data is a major goal of population genetics. Recent empirical studies infer population size history using coalescent-based models applied to a small number of individuals. Here we…

We present a robust Bayesian method to analyze forestry data when samples are selected with probability proportional to length from a finite population of unknown size. Specifically, we use Bayesian predictive inference to estimate the…

The problem of deciding whether two samples arise from the same distribution is often the question of interest in many research investigations. Numerous statistical methods have been devoted to this issue, but only few of them have…

Trees corresponding to $\Lambda$- and $\Xi$-$n$-coalescents can be both quite similar and fundamentally different compared to bifurcating tree models based on Kingman's $n$-coalescent. This has consequences for inference of a well-fitting…

Many real world problems exhibit patterns that have periodic behavior. For example, in astrophysics, periodic variable stars play a pivotal role in understanding our universe. An important step when analyzing data from such processes is the…

We propose a pointwise inference algorithm for high-dimensional linear models with time-varying coefficients. The method is based on a novel combination of the nonparametric kernel smoothing technique and a Lasso bias-corrected ridge…

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric method for low-pass filtering that can naturally handle unevenly-sampled and noise-corrupted observations. The proposed model is constructed as a latent-factor model for time series, where the latent…

This paper extends earlier work by Cox and Durrett, who studied the coalescence times for two lineages in the stepping stone model on the two-dimensional torus. We show that the genealogy of a sample of size n is given by a time change of…

This preprint has been reviewed and recommended by Peer Community In Evolutionary Biology (http://dx.doi.org/10.24072/pci.evolbiol.100036). Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) has grown into a standard methodology that manages Bayesian…

Generative Bayesian Filtering (GBF) provides a powerful and flexible framework for performing posterior inference in complex nonlinear and non-Gaussian state-space models. Our approach extends Generative Bayesian Computation (GBC) to…

We introduce state-space models where the functionals of the observational and the evolutionary equations are unknown, and treated as random functions evolving with time. Thus, our model is nonparametric and generalizes the traditional…

Most results in nonparametric regression theory are developed only for the case of additive noise. In such a setting many smoothing techniques including wavelet thresholding methods have been developed and shown to be highly adaptive. In…

This invited paper proposes and discusses several Bayesian attempts at nonparametric and semiparametric density estimation. The main categories of these ideas are as follows: 1) Build a nonparametric prior around a given parametric model.…

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a likelihood-free approach for Bayesian inferences based on a rejection algorithm method that applies a tolerance of dissimilarity between summary statistics from observed and simulated data.…