相关论文: Optimal Unbiased Estimation for Expected Cumulativ…

We propose an adaptive randomized truncation estimator for Krylov subspace methods that optimizes the trade-off between the solution variance and the computational cost, while remaining unbiased. The estimator solves a constrained…

The randomized unbiased estimators of Rhee and Glynn (Operations Research:63(5), 1026-1043, 2015) can be highly efficient at approximating expectations of path functionals associated with stochastic differential equations (SDEs). However,…

We tackle the problem of estimating risk measures of the infinite-horizon discounted cost within a Markov cost process. The risk measures we study include variance, Value-at-Risk (VaR), and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). First, we show…

Partial differential equation is a powerful tool to characterize various physics systems. In practice, measurement errors are often present and probability models are employed to account for such uncertainties. In this paper, we present a…

An efficient conditioning technique, the so-called Brownian Bridge simulation, has previously been applied to eliminate pricing bias that arises in applications of the standard discrete-time Monte Carlo method to evaluate options written on…

Performing numerical integration when the integrand itself cannot be evaluated point-wise is a challenging task that arises in statistical analysis, notably in Bayesian inference for models with intractable likelihood functions. Markov…

In this paper, we have established a new framework of truncated inverse sampling for estimating mean values of non-negative random variables such as binomial, Poisson, hyper-geometrical, and bounded variables. We have derived explicit…

We derive a novel variational expectation maximization approach based on truncated posterior distributions. Truncated distributions are proportional to exact posteriors within subsets of a discrete state space and equal zero otherwise. The…

Several problems in statistics involve the combination of high-variance unbiased estimators with low-variance estimators that are only unbiased under strong assumptions. A notable example is the estimation of causal effects while combining…

We construct an unbiased estimator for function value evaluated at the solution of a partial differential equation with random coefficients. We show that the variance and expected computational cost of our estimator are finite and our…

We investigate the accuracy of the two most common estimators for the maximum expected value of a general set of random variables: a generalization of the maximum sample average, and cross validation. No unbiased estimator exists and we…

We propose a Model Predictive Control (MPC) with a single-step prediction horizon to approximate the solution of infinite horizon optimal control problems with the expected sum of convex stage costs for constrained linear uncertain systems.…

We present a new algorithm, truncated variance reduction (TruVaR), that treats Bayesian optimization (BO) and level-set estimation (LSE) with Gaussian processes in a unified fashion. The algorithm greedily shrinks a sum of truncated…

The problem of pricing Bermudan options using Monte Carlo and a nonparametric regression is considered. We derive optimal non-asymptotic bounds for a lower biased estimate based on the suboptimal stopping rule constructed using some…

In this paper, we present a new approach to distributed moving horizon estimation for constrained nonlinear processes. The method involves approximating the arrival costs of local estimators through a recursive framework. First, distributed…

To recover a low rank structure from a noisy matrix, truncated singular value decomposition has been extensively used and studied. Recent studies suggested that the signal can be better estimated by shrinking the singular values. We pursue…

We develop and analyze a class of unbiased Monte Carlo estimators for multivariate jump-diffusion processes with state-dependent drift, volatility, jump intensity and jump size. A change of measure argument is used to extend existing…

Quantum mechanics for many-body systems may be reduced to the evaluation of integrals in 3N dimensions using Monte-Carlo, providing the Quantum Monte Carlo ab initio methods. Here we limit ourselves to expectation values for trial…

We consider the problem of estimating expectations with respect to a target distribution with an unknown normalizing constant, and where even the unnormalized target needs to be approximated at finite resolution. Under such an assumption,…

We consider finite horizon Markov decision processes under performance measures that involve both the mean and the variance of the cumulative reward. We show that either randomized or history-based policies can improve performance. We prove…