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We develop terminology and methods for working with maximally oriented partially directed acyclic graphs (maximal PDAGs). Maximal PDAGs arise from imposing restrictions on a Markov equivalence class of directed acyclic graphs, or…

统计理论 · 数学 2018-06-20 Emilija Perković , Markus Kalisch , Maloes H. Maathuis

We introduce Causal Program Dependence Analysis (CPDA), a dynamic dependence analysis that applies causal inference to model the strength of program dependence relations in a continuous space. CPDA observes the association between program…

软件工程 · 计算机科学 2021-04-20 Seongmin Lee , Dave Binkley , Robert Feldt , Nicolas Gold , Shin Yoo

Reasoning about the effect of interventions and counterfactuals is a fundamental task found throughout the data sciences. A collection of principles, algorithms, and tools has been developed for performing such tasks in the last decades…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-02-08 Tara V. Anand , Adèle H. Ribeiro , Jin Tian , Elias Bareinboim

We study the performance of Local Causal Discovery (LCD), a simple and efficient constraint-based method for causal discovery, in predicting causal effects in large-scale gene expression data. We construct practical estimators specific to…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-10-21 Philip Versteeg , Joris M. Mooij

Applied researchers in biomedicine and related fields are often interested in estimating the causal effect of a treatment or intervention. Although randomized clinical trials are considered the gold standard for establishing causal effects,…

Recent years have seen the development of many novel scoring tools for disease prognosis and prediction. To become accepted for use in clinical applications, these tools have to be validated on external data. In practice, validation is…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-12-06 Matthias Schmid , Tim Friede , Nadja Klein , Leonie Weinhold

Estimating causal effects with propensity scores relies upon the availability of treated and untreated units observed at each value of the estimated propensity score. In settings with strong confounding, limited so-called "overlap" in…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-10-25 Corwin M Zigler , Matthew Cefalu

Inferring the potential consequences of an unobserved event is a fundamental scientific question. To this end, Pearl's celebrated do-calculus provides a set of inference rules to derive an interventional probability from an observational…

离散数学 · 计算机科学 2021-08-10 Benjamin Heymann , Michel de Lara , Jean-Philippe Chancelier

The use of observational time series data to assess the impact of multi-time point interventions is becoming increasingly common as more health and activity data are collected and digitized via wearables, social media, and electronic health…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-12-01 Roy Adams , Suchi Saria , Michael Rosenblum

Inference of causality in time series has been principally based on the prediction paradigm. Nonetheless, the predictive causality approach may overlook the simultaneous and reciprocal nature of causal interactions observed in real world…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2018-10-24 Albert C. Yang , Norden E. Huang , Chung-Kang Peng

Deciding on an appropriate intervention requires a causal model of a treatment, the outcome, and potential mediators. Causal mediation analysis lets us distinguish between direct and indirect effects of the intervention, but has mostly been…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-06-19 Çağlar Hızlı , ST John , Anne Juuti , Tuure Saarinen , Kirsi Pietiläinen , Pekka Marttinen

Difference-in-Differences (DiD) is a widely used research design that often relies on a conditional parallel trends (CPT) assumption. In contrast to settings with unconfoundedness, where causal graphs provide powerful frameworks for…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2026-04-15 Michael C. Knaus , Henri Pfleiderer

An important problem in many domains is to predict how a system will respond to interventions. This task is inherently linked to estimating the system's underlying causal structure. To this end, Invariant Causal Prediction (ICP) (Peters et…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-09-21 Christina Heinze-Deml , Jonas Peters , Nicolai Meinshausen

Pairwise causal background knowledge about the existence or absence of causal edges and paths is frequently encountered in observational studies. Such constraints allow the shared directed and undirected edges in the constrained subclass of…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2026-01-06 Zhuangyan Fang , Ruiqi Zhao , Yue Liu , Yangbo He

In randomized trials and observational studies, it is often necessary to evaluate the extent to which an intervention affects a time-to-event outcome, which is only partially observed due to right censoring. For instance, in infectious…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-12-16 Yutong Jin , Peter B. Gilbert , Aaron Hudson

The use of instrumental variables for estimating the effect of an exposure on an outcome is popular in econometrics, and increasingly so in epidemiology. This increasing popularity may be attributed to the natural occurrence of instrumental…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2016-08-03 T. Martinussen , S. Vansteelandt , E. J. Tchetgen Tchetgen , D. M. Zucker

Learning causal relations from observational data is a fundamental problem with wide-ranging applications across many fields. Constraint-based methods infer the underlying causal structure by performing conditional independence tests.…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-03-24 Marc Franquesa Monés , Jiaqi Zhang , Caroline Uhler

Causal identification of treatment effects for infectious disease outcomes in interconnected populations is challenging because infection outcomes may be transmissible to others, and treatment given to one individual may affect others'…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-05-11 Xiaoxuan Cai , Eben Kenah , Forrest W. Crawford

We study the generic identifiability of causal effects in linear non-Gaussian acyclic models (LiNGAM) with latent variables. We consider the problem in two main settings: When the causal graph is known a priori, and when it is unknown. In…

Quantifying causal effects of exposures on outcomes, such as a treatment and a disease respectively, is a crucial issue in medical science for the administration of effective therapies. Importantly, any related causal analysis should…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-09-04 Federico Castelletti , Laura Ferrini