相关论文: Accuracy-Reliability Cost Function for Empirical V…

Regression methods are fundamental for scientific and technological applications. However, fitted models can be highly unreliable outside of their training domain, and hence the quantification of their uncertainty is crucial in many of…

We focus on the problem estimating a monotone trend function under additive and dependent noise. New point-wise confidence interval estimators under both short- and long-range dependent errors are introduced and studied. These intervals are…

We consider the problem of linear fitting of noisy data in the case of broad (say $\alpha$-stable) distributions of random impacts ("noise"), which can lack even the first moment. This situation, common in statistical physics of small…

This paper seeks to answer the following question: \textit{"What can we learn by predicting accuracy?"}. Indeed, classification is one of the most popular tasks in machine learning, and many loss functions have been developed to maximize…

This paper discusses a methodology for determining a functional representation of a random process from a collection of scattered pointwise samples. The present work specifically focuses onto random quantities lying in a high dimensional…

In regression problems where there is no known true underlying model, conformal prediction methods enable prediction intervals to be constructed without any assumptions on the distribution of the underlying data, except that the training…

Reliable predictive uncertainty estimation plays an important role in enabling the deployment of neural networks to safety-critical settings. A popular approach for estimating the predictive uncertainty of neural networks is to define a…

We develop semiparametrically efficient inference for kernel measures of noise heterogeneity in additive noise models. In many applications, the regression function is estimated using flexible machine learning methods. Downstream procedures…

We analyze sources of error in prediction market forecasts in order to bound the difference between a security's price and the ground truth it estimates. We consider cost-function-based prediction markets in which an automated market maker…

Measuring the accuracy of cross-sectional predictions is a subjective problem. Generally, this problem is avoided. In contrast, this paper confronts subjectivity up front by eliciting an impartial decision-maker's preferences. These…

In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating parameters of a linear regression model. Using a hybrid systems framework, a hybrid algorithm is proposed allowing the estimate to converge to the exact value of the unknown parameters in…

We use a decision-theoretic framework to study the problem of forecasting discrete outcomes when the forecaster is unable to discriminate among a set of plausible forecast distributions because of partial identification or concerns about…

Computational models support high-stakes decisions across engineering and science, and practitioners increasingly seek probabilistic predictions to quantify uncertainty in such models. Existing approaches generate predictions either by…

The paper considers the problem of robust estimating a periodic function in a continuous time regression model with dependent disturbances given by a general square integrable semimartingale with unknown distribution. An example of such a…

The nested error regression model is a useful tool for analyzing clustered (grouped) data, and is especially used in small area estimation. The classical nested error regression model assumes normality of random effects and error terms, and…

Accurate assessment of systematic uncertainties is an increasingly vital task in physics studies, where large, high-dimensional datasets, like those collected at the Large Hadron Collider, hold the key to new discoveries. Common approaches…

In this paper we consider regression problems subject to arbitrary noise in the operator or design matrix. This characterization appropriately models many physical phenomena with uncertainty in the regressors. Although the problem has been…

The estimation of the frequencies of multiple superimposed exponentials in noise is an important research problem due to its various applications from engineering to chemistry. In this paper, we propose an efficient and accurate algorithm…

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in deep learning regression is of wide interest, as it supports critical applications including sequential decision making and risk-sensitive tasks. In heteroskedastic regression, where the uncertainty of the…

Explicit quantification of uncertainty in engineering simulations is being increasingly used to inform robust and reliable design practices. In the aerospace industry, computationally-feasible analyses for design optimization purposes often…