相关论文: Forecasting the impact of state pension reforms in…

We perform stochastic microsimulations of the dynamics of England and Wales population after the British referendum on EU membership, considering different possible outcomes. Employing available survey data, we model the demographics of the…

In UK data, I document the prevalence of misbeliefs regarding the State Pension eligibility age (SPA) and their predictivity for retirement. Exploiting policy variation, I estimate a lifecycle model of retirement in which, motivated by…

In recent years, improvements in all-cause mortality rates and life expectancies for males and females in England and Wales have slowed down. In this paper, cause-specific mortality data for England and Wales from 2001 to 2018 are used to…

Factors contributing to social inequalities are also associated with negative mental health outcomes leading to disparities in mental well-being. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model which can evaluate the impact of policies on…

The age pension aims to assist eligible elderly Australians meet specific age and residency criteria in maintaining basic living standards. In designing efficient pension systems, government policymakers seek to satisfy the expectations of…

Using unique research data, we investigate disability retirement risk under the statutory public sector pension scheme in Finland. The statistical analysis yields two indicators: risk for upcoming permanent disability pension and critical…

In this paper, we develop a deep neural network approach to solve a lifetime expected mortality-weighted utility-based model for optimal consumption in the decumulation phase of a defined contribution pension system. We formulate this…

This paper describes a general approach for stochastic modeling of assets returns and liability cash-flows of a typical pensions insurer. On the asset side, we model the investment returns on equities and various classes of fixed-income…

Forecasts of mortality provide vital information about future populations, with implications for pension and health-care policy as well as for decisions made by private companies about life insurance and annuity pricing. Stochastic…

Will the United Kingdom's ageing population be fit and independent, or suffer from greater chronic ill health? Healthy life expectancy is commonly used to assess this: it is an estimate of how many years are lived in good health over the…

This paper studies the optimal investment problem for a hybrid pension plan under model uncertainty, where both the contribution and the benefit are adjusted depending on the performance of the plan. Furthermore, an age and time-dependent…

We extend the exploration regarding dynamical approach of macroeconomic variables by tackling systematically expenditure using Statistical Physics models (for the first time to the best of our knowledge). Also, using polynomial distribution…

We study the gap between the state pension provided by the Italian pension system pre-Dini reform and post-Dini reform. The goal is to fill the gap between the old and the new pension by joining a defined contribution pension scheme and…

Birth rates have dramatically decreased and, with continuous improvements in life expectancy, pension expenditure is on an irreversibly increasing path. This will raise serious concerns for the sustainability of the public pension systems…

This work introduces a Bayesian smoothing approach for the joint graduation of mortality rates across multiple populations. In particular, dynamical linear models are used to induce smoothness across ages through structured dependence,…

Despite increasing cognitive demands of jobs, knowledge about the role of health in retirement has centered on its physical dimensions. This paper estimates a dynamic programming model of retirement that incorporates multiple health…

Almost every public pension system shares two attributes: earning deductions to finance benefits, and benefits that depend on earnings. This paper analyzes theoretically and empirically the trade-off between social insurance and incentive…

We provide forecasts for mortality rates by using two different approaches. First we employ dynamic non-linear logistic models based on Heligman-Pollard formula. Second, we assume that the dynamics of the mortality rates can be modelled…

This paper estimates the stochastic process of how dementia incidence evolves over time. We proceed in two steps: first, we estimate a time trend for dementia using a multi-state Cox model. The multi-state model addresses problems of both…

A widely-used model for determining the long-term health impacts of public health interventions, often called a "multistate lifetable", requires estimates of incidence, case fatality, and sometimes also remission rates, for multiple…