相关论文: INLA goes extreme: Bayesian tail regression for th…

Aiming to deliver improved precipitation simulations for hydrological impact assessment studies, we develop a methodology for modelling and simulating high-dimensional spatial precipitation extremes, focusing on both their marginal…

Various computational challenges arise when applying Bayesian inference approaches to complex hierarchical models. Sampling-based inference methods, such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo strategies, are renowned for providing accurate results…

Accurately quantifying tail risks-rare but high-impact events such as financial crashes or extreme weather-is a central challenge in risk management, with serially dependent data. We develop a Bayesian framework based on the Generalized…

The generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is a popular model for analyzing and forecasting extreme weather data. To increase prediction accuracy, spatial information is often pooled via a latent Gaussian process (GP) on the GEV…

We develop a method for probabilistic prediction of extreme value hot-spots in a spatio-temporal framework, tailored to big datasets containing important gaps. In this setting, direct calculation of summaries from data, such as the minimum…

The conditional extremes framework allows for event-based stochastic modeling of dependent extremes, and has recently been extended to spatial and spatio-temporal settings. After standardizing the marginal distributions and applying an…

Extreme floods cause casualties, and widespread damage to property and vital civil infrastructure. We here propose a Bayesian approach for predicting extreme floods using the generalized extreme-value (GEV) distribution within gauged and…

Data derived from remote sensing or numerical simulations often have a regular gridded structure and are large in volume, making it challenging to find accurate spatial models that can fill in missing grid cells or simulate the process…

Various natural phenomena exhibit spatial extremal dependence at short spatial distances. However, existing models proposed in the spatial extremes literature often assume that extremal dependence persists across the entire domain. This is…

A new method is proposed for modelling the yearly maxima of sub-daily precipitation, with the aim of producing spatial maps of return level estimates. Yearly precipitation maxima are modelled using a Bayesian hierarchical model with a…

Motivated by the analysis of extreme rainfall data, we introduce a general Bayesian hierarchical model for estimating the probability distribution of extreme values of intermittent random sequences, a common problem in geophysical and…

Accurate modeling of daily rainfall, encompassing both dry and wet days as well as extreme precipitation events, is critical for robust hydrological and climatological analyses. This study proposes a zero-inflated extended generalized…

We develop new flexible univariate models for light-tailed and heavy-tailed data, which extend a hierarchical representation of the generalized Pareto (GP) limit for threshold exceedances. These models can accommodate departure from…

Extreme events over large spatial domains may exhibit highly heterogeneous tail dependence characteristics, yet most existing spatial extremes models yield only one dependence class over the entire spatial domain. To accurately characterize…

The Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) is a convenient way to obtain approximations to the posterior marginals for parameters in Bayesian hierarchical models when the latent effects can be expressed as a Gaussian Markov Random…

Predicting the occurrence of tail events is of great importance in financial risk management. By employing the method of peak-over-threshold (POT) to identify the financial extremes, we perform a recurrence interval analysis (RIA) on these…

Climate extremes such as floods, storms, and heatwaves have caused severe economic and human losses across Europe in recent decades. To support the European Union's climate resilience efforts, we propose a statistical framework for…

Impact assessment of natural hazards requires the consideration of both extreme and non-extreme events. Extensive research has been conducted on the joint modeling of bulk and tail in univariate settings; however, the corresponding body of…

Approximate Bayesian inference for the class of latent Gaussian models can be achieved efficiently with integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLA). Based on recent reformulations in the INLA methodology, we propose a further extension…

The integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) for Bayesian inference is an efficient approach to estimate the posterior marginal distributions of the parameters and latent effects of Bayesian hierarchical models that can be expressed…