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Despite a large and significant body of recent work focused on estimating the out-of-sample risk of regularized models in the high dimensional regime, a theoretical understanding of this problem for non-differentiable penalties such as…

统计理论 · 数学 2024-02-15 Haolin Zou , Arnab Auddy , Kamiar Rahnama Rad , Arian Maleki

We analyze the performance of cross-validation (CV) in the density estimation framework with two purposes: (i) risk estimation and (ii) model selection. The main focus is given to the so-called leave-$p$-out CV procedure (Lpo), where $p$…

统计理论 · 数学 2014-10-02 Alain Celisse

Paired comparison models are used for analyzing data that involves pairwise comparisons among a set of objects. When the outcomes of the pairwise comparisons have no ties, the paired comparison models can be generalized as a class of binary…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-11-29 Ran Huo , Mark E. Glickman

Multiple diagnostic tests are frequently used to determine the presence of a disease condition in patients. In this paper, we use bivariate copulas to examine the properties of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves formed when two…

Throughout science and technology, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and associated area under the curve (AUC) measures constitute powerful tools for assessing the predictive abilities of features, markers and tests in binary…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-06-25 Tilmann Gneiting , Eva-Maria Walz

The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is a very useful tool for analyzing the diagnostic/classification power of instruments/classification schemes as long as a binary-scale gold standard is available. When the gold standard is…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2011-05-10 Zhanfeng Wang , Yuan-chin Ivan Chang

Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV) is a popular method for estimating out-of-sample predictive accuracy. However, computing LOO-CV criteria can be computationally expensive due to the need to fit the model multiple times. In the…

统计计算 · 统计学 2023-09-28 Luca Silva , Giacomo Zanella

In high-stakes risk prediction, quantifying uncertainty through interval-valued predictions is essential for reliable decision-making. However, standard evaluation tools like the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the area…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-02-05 Yuqi Li , Matthew M. Engelhard

Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis is a tool to evaluate the capacity of a numeric measure to distinguish between groups, often employed in the evaluation of diagnostic tests. Overall classification ability is sometimes…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-08-01 Nathaniel P. Dowd , Bryan Blette , James D. Chappell , Natasha B. Halasa , Andrew J. Spieker

The paper considers the problem of out-of-sample risk estimation under the high dimensional settings where standard techniques such as $K$-fold cross validation suffer from large biases. Motivated by the low bias of the leave-one-out cross…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-02-12 Kamiar Rahnama Rad , Arian Maleki

Cross-validation is a common method for estimating the predictive performance of machine learning models. In a data-scarce regime, where one typically wishes to maximize the number of instances used for training the model, an approach…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-03-25 George I. Austin , Itsik Pe'er , Tal Korem

In analysis of binary outcomes, the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve is heavily used to show the performance of a model or algorithm. The ROC curve is informative about the performance over a series of thresholds and can be…

统计计算 · 统计学 2020-08-10 John Muschelli

With machine learning being a popular topic in current computational materials science literature, creating representations for compounds has become common place. These representations are rarely compared, as evaluating their performance -…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-05-26 Samantha Durdy , Michael Gaultois , Vladimir Gusev , Danushka Bollegala , Matthew J. Rosseinsky

Whilst the size and complexity of ML models have rapidly and significantly increased over the past decade, the methods for assessing their performance have not kept pace. In particular, among the many potential performance metrics, the ML…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-12-29 Michael Roberts , Alon Hazan , Sören Dittmer , James H. F. Rudd , Carola-Bibiane Schönlieb

The present work aims at deriving theoretical guaranties on the behavior of some cross-validation procedures applied to the $k$-nearest neighbors ($k$NN) rule in the context of binary classification. Here we focus on the leave-$p$-out…

统计理论 · 数学 2017-10-13 Alain Celisse , Tristan Mary-Huard

It is useful to estimate the expected predictive performance of models planned to be used for prediction. We focus on leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV), which has become a popular method for estimating predictive performance of…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-10-29 Tuomas Sivula , Måns Magnusson , Asael Alonzo Matamoros , Aki Vehtari

Background: Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves are widely used to evaluate the performance of Software Defect Prediction (SDP) models that estimate module fault-proneness, i.e., the probability that a module is faulty. A ROC…

软件工程 · 计算机科学 2026-04-23 Luigi Lavazza , Gabriele Rotoloni , Sandro Morasca

In mammalian and vertebrate genomes, the promoter regions of the gene and their distal enhancers may be located millions of base-pairs from each other, while a promoter may not interact with the closest enhancer. Since base-pair proximity…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-04-02 Muhammad Tahir , Shehroz S. Khan , James Davie , Soichiro Yamanaka , Ahmed Ashraf

The out-of-sample error (OO) is the main quantity of interest in risk estimation and model selection. Leave-one-out cross validation (LO) offers a (nearly) distribution-free yet computationally demanding approach to estimate OO. Recent…

统计理论 · 数学 2023-10-27 Arnab Auddy , Haolin Zou , Kamiar Rahnama Rad , Arian Maleki

One of the common goals of time series analysis is to use the observed series to inform predictions for future observations. In the absence of any actual new data to predict, cross-validation can be used to estimate a model's future…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-07-02 Paul-Christian Bürkner , Jonah Gabry , Aki Vehtari
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