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When developing risk prediction models, shrinkage methods are recommended, especially when the sample size is limited. Several earlier studies have shown that the shrinkage of model coefficients can reduce overfitting of the prediction…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-07-29 Ben Van Calster , Maarten van Smeden , Ewout W. Steyerberg

In this work, we investigate dispersion interactions in a selection of atomic, molecular, and molecule-surface systems, comparing high-level correlated methods with empirically-corrected density functional theory (DFT). We assess the…

化学物理 · 物理学 2021-01-27 Tyler J. Hughes , Robert A. Shaw , Salvy P. Russo

A difficulty in MSE estimation occurs because we do not specify a full distribution for the survey weights. This obfuscates the use of fully parametric bootstrap procedures. To overcome this challenge, we develop a novel MSE estimator. We…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-10-25 Yanghyeon Cho , Emily Berg

This paper introduces a straightforward sieve-based approach for estimating and conducting inference on regression parameters in panel data models with interactive fixed effects. The method's key assumption is that factor loadings can be…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-02-26 Georg Keilbar , Juan M. Rodriguez-Poo , Alexandra Soberon , Weining Wang

Classification imbalance arises when one class is much rarer than the other. We frame this setting as transfer learning under label (prior) shift between an imbalanced source distribution induced by the observed data and a balanced target…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-01-16 Eric Xia , Jason M. Klusowski

Solvation free energies are efficiently predicted by molecular density functionnal theory (MDFT) if one corrects the overpressure introduced by the usual homogeneous reference fluid approximation. Sergiievskyi et al. [Sergiievskyi et al.,…

Koopmans spectral functionals are a powerful extension of Kohn-Sham density-functional theory (DFT) that enable the prediction of spectral properties with state-of-the-art accuracy. The success of these functionals relies on capturing the…

材料科学 · 物理学 2024-12-23 Yannick Schubert , Sandra Luber , Nicola Marzari , Edward Linscott

Electricity price forecasts are typically evaluated using accuracy measures such as RMSE and MAE, although these metrics often fail to reflect their economic value in operational decisions. This paper investigates which statistical…

计算金融 · 定量金融 2026-04-01 Katarzyna Maciejowska , Arkadiusz Lipiecki , Bartosz Uniejewski

Irregular functional data in which densely sampled curves are observed over different ranges pose a challenge for modeling and inference, and sensitivity to outlier curves is a concern in applications. Motivated by applications in…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-05-14 Yeonjoo Park , Xiaohui Chen , Douglas G. Simpson

Semi-empirical quantum mechanical methods traditionally expand the electron density in a minimal, valence-only electron basis set. The minimal-basis approximation causes molecular polarization to be underestimated, and hence intermolecular…

化学物理 · 物理学 2015-09-30 Anders S. Christensen , Marcus Elstner , Qiang Cui

We propose three novel consistent specification tests for quantile regression models which generalize former tests in three ways. First, we allow the covariate effects to be quantile-dependent and nonlinear. Second, we allow parameterizing…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-12-07 Tim Kutzker , Nadja Klein , Dominik Wied

Assume that we observe a large number of curves, all of them with identical, although unknown, shape, but with a different random shift. The objective is to estimate the individual time shifts and their distribution. Such an objective…

应用统计 · 统计学 2015-03-13 T. Trigano , U. Isserles , Y. Ritov

For the large and chemically diverse GMTKN55 benchmark suite, we have studied the performance of density-corrected density functional theory (HF-DFT), compared to self-consistent DFT, for several pure and hybrid GGA and meta-GGA…

化学物理 · 物理学 2021-03-29 Golokesh Santra , Jan M. L. Martin

Conformal prediction guarantees degrade under distribution shift. We study this using COVID-19 as a natural experiment across 8 supply chain tasks. Despite identical severe feature turnover (Jaccard approximately 0), coverage drops vary…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-01-06 Chorok Lee

The increasing interest in spatially correlated functional data has led to the development of appropriate geostatistical techniques that allow to predict a curve at an unmonitored location using a functional kriging with external drift…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-06-23 Maria Franco-Villoria , Rosaria Ignaccolo

Deep learning models achieve high predictive accuracy across a broad spectrum of tasks, but rigorously quantifying their predictive uncertainty remains challenging. Usable estimates of predictive uncertainty should (1) cover the true…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-07-28 Ahmed M. Alaa , Mihaela van der Schaar

Multivariate extreme value models are used to estimate joint risk in a number of applications, with a particular focus on environmental fields ranging from climatology and hydrology to oceanography and seismic hazards. The semi-parametric…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-08-08 Ross Towe , Jonathan Tawn , Rob Lamb , Chris Sherlock

One of the most important open challenges in modern Kohn-Sham (KS) density-functional theory (DFT) is the correct treatment of fractional electron charges and spins. Approximate exchange-correlation (XC) functionals struggle to do this in a…

化学物理 · 物理学 2015-12-24 Jonathan Nafziger , Adam Wasserman

Machine learning of kinetic energy functionals (KEF), in particular kinetic energy density (KED) functionals, has recently attracted attention as a promising way to construct KEFs for orbital-free density functional theory (OF-DFT). Neural…

材料科学 · 物理学 2025-08-11 Sergei Manzhos , Johann Lüder , Manabu Ihara

The semiclassical equations of motion are widely used to describe carrier transport in conducting materials. Nevertheless, the substantial challenge of incorporating disorder systematically into the semiclassical model persists, leading to…

介观与纳米尺度物理 · 物理学 2022-03-08 Rhonald Burgos Atencia , Qian Niu , Dimitrie Culcer