相关论文: Nonparametric Hawkes Processes: Online Estimation …

The multivariate Hawkes process (MHP) is widely used for analyzing data streams that interact with each other, where events generate new events within their own dimension (via self-excitation) or across different dimensions (via…

We define a numerical method that provides a non-parametric estimation of the kernel shape in symmetric multivariate Hawkes processes. This method relies on second order statistical properties of Hawkes processes that relate the covariance…

It is crucially important to estimate unknown parameters in earth system models by integrating observation and numerical simulation. For many applications in earth system sciences, an optimization method which allows parameters to…

This paper derives the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE) of a distribution function from observations which are subject to both bias and censoring. The NPMLE is obtained by a simple EM algorithm which is an extension of the…

This work proposes an event-triggered moving horizon estimation (ET-MHE) scheme for general nonlinear systems. The key components of the proposed scheme are a novel event-triggering mechanism (ETM) and the suitable design of the MHE cost…

In this paper we formulate the nonnegative matrix factorisation (NMF) problem as a maximum likelihood estimation problem for hidden Markov models and propose online expectation-maximisation (EM) algorithms to estimate the NMF and the other…

This paper introduces the Hawkes skeleton and the Hawkes graph. These objects summarize the branching structure of a multivariate Hawkes point process in a compact, yet meaningful way. We demonstrate how graph-theoretic vocabulary…

Hawkes Processes are a type of point process for modeling self-excitation, i.e., when the occurrence of an event makes future events more likely to occur. The corresponding self-triggering function of this type of process may be inferred…

We study the problem of off-policy evaluation (OPE) for episodic Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) with continuous states. Motivated by the recently proposed proximal causal inference framework, we develop a…

Hawkes process models are used in settings where past events increase the likelihood of future events occurring. Many applications record events as counts on a regular grid, yet discrete-time Hawkes models remain comparatively underused and…

In this paper, we introduce the online and streaming MAP inference and learning problems for Non-symmetric Determinantal Point Processes (NDPPs) where data points arrive in an arbitrary order and the algorithms are constrained to use a…

Univariate marked Hawkes processes are used to model a range of real-world phenomena including earthquake aftershock sequences, contagious disease spread, content diffusion on social media platforms, and order book dynamics. This paper…

Hawkes process provides an effective statistical framework for analyzing the time-dependent interaction of neuronal spiking activities. Although utilized in many real applications, the classic Hawkes process is incapable of modelling…

The Hawkes process is a versatile stochastic model for point patterns that exhibit self-excitation, that is, the property that an event occurrence increases the rate of occurrence for some period of time in the future. We present a Bayesian…

Event data consisting of time of occurrence of the events arises in several real-world applications. Recent works have introduced neural network based point processes for modeling event-times, and were shown to provide state-of-the-art…

As an extension of self-exciting Hawkes process, the multivariate Hawkes process models counting processes of different types of random events with mutual excitement. In this paper, we present a perfect sampling algorithm that can generate…

Nonparametric empirical Bayes methods provide a flexible and attractive approach to high-dimensional data analysis. One particularly elegant empirical Bayes methodology, involving the Kiefer-Wolfowitz nonparametric maximum likelihood…

We propose a novel approach to marked Hawkes kernel inference which we name the moment-based neural Hawkes estimation method. Hawkes processes are fully characterized by their first and second order statistics through a Fredholm integral…

The aim of this paper is to provide a new method for the detection of either favored or avoided distances between genomic events along DNA sequences. These events are modeled by a Hawkes process. The biological problem is actually complex…

Estimating and reacting to external disturbances is of fundamental importance for robust control of quadrotors. Existing estimators typically require significant tuning or training with a large amount of data, including the ground truth, to…