相关论文: Set Identified Dynamic Economies and Robustness to…

We propose an easily implementable test of the validity of a set of theoretical restrictions on the relationship between economic variables, which do not necessarily identify the data generating process. The restrictions can be derived from…

Economic model predictive control and tracking model predictive control are two popular advanced process control strategies used in various of fields. Nevertheless, which one should be chosen to achieve better performance in the presence of…

In this paper we aim to apply an adaptation of the recently developed technique of sparse identification of nonlinear dynamical systems on a Duffing experimental setup with cubic feedback of the output. The Duffing oscillator described by…

Identification of nonlinear dynamical systems is crucial across various fields, facilitating tasks such as control, prediction, optimization, and fault detection. Many applications require methods capable of handling complex systems while…

In this study, we explore how to improve the functionality of multiclass classification algorithms. We used a benchmark dataset from Kaggle to create a framework. They have been used in a number of fields, including image recognition,…

In the dynamic landscape of continuous change, Machine Learning (ML) "nowcasting" models offer a distinct advantage for informed decision-making in both public and private sectors. This study introduces ML-based GDP growth projection models…

In this paper, we develop a unified approach to study partial identification of a finite-dimensional parameter defined by a general moment model with incomplete data. We establish a novel characterization of the identified set for the true…

Dynamic factor models are often estimated by point-estimation methods, disregarding parameter uncertainty. We propose a method accounting for parameter uncertainty by means of posterior approximation, using variational inference. Our…

We introduce and study a variational framework for the analysis of empirical risk based inference for dynamical systems and ergodic processes. The analysis applies to a two-stage estimation procedure in which (i) the trajectory of an…

The macroeconomic climate influences operations with regard to, e.g., raw material prices, financing, supply chain utilization and demand quotas. In order to adapt to the economic environment, decision-makers across the public and private…

Identifying behavior that is relatively invariant under different conditions is a challenging task in far-from-equilibrium complex systems. As an example of how the existence of a semi-invariant signature can be masked by the heterogeneity…

Inconsistency in prediction problems occurs when instances that relate in a certain way on condition attributes, do not follow the same relation on the decision attribute. For example, in ordinal classification with monotonicity…

One of the main tasks in the study of financial and economic processes is forecasting and analysis of the dynamics of these processes. Within this task lie important research questions including how to determine the qualitative properties…

Dynamic networks are structured interconnections of dynamical systems (modules) driven by external excitation and disturbance signals. In order to identify their dynamical properties and/or their topology consistently from measured data, we…

Measuring the corporate default risk is broadly important in economics and finance. Quantitative methods have been developed to predictively assess future corporate default probabilities. However, as a more difficult yet crucial problem,…

Seemingly unrelated models of inflation that originate from different physical setups yield, in some cases, identical predictions for the currently constrained inflationary observables. In order to classify the available models, we propose…

Distributionally Robust Optimisation (DRO) protects risk-averse decision-makers by considering the worst-case risk within an ambiguity set of distributions based on the empirical distribution or a model. To further guard against finite,…

This paper develops a design-first econometric framework for event-study and difference-in-differences estimands under staggered adoption with heterogeneous effects, emphasising (i) exact probability limits for conventional two-way fixed…

We study a linear contextual optimization problem where a decision maker has access to historical data and contextual features to learn a cost prediction model aimed at minimizing decision error. We adopt the predict-then-optimize framework…

In many problems of data-driven modeling for dynamical systems, the governing equations are not known a priori and must be selected phenomenologically from a large set of candidate interactions and basis functions. In such situations, point…