相关论文: How fragile are information cascades?

Assuming that data are collected sequentially from independent streams, we consider the simultaneous testing of multiple binary hypotheses under two general setups; when the number of signals (correct alternatives) is known in advance, and…

Peer prediction refers to a collection of mechanisms for eliciting information from human agents when direct verification of the obtained information is unavailable. They are designed to have a game-theoretic equilibrium where everyone…

In many non-cooperative settings, agents often possess useful information that provide an advantage over their opponent(s), but acting on such information too frequently can lead to detection. I develop a simple framework to analyze such a…

We study the propagation of information in social networks. To do so, we focus on a cascade model where nodes are infected with {probability $p_1$ after their first contact with the information and with probability $p_2$ at all subsequent…

Why is it that a ticking clock typically becomes less accurate when subject to outside noise but rarely the reverse? Here, we formalize this phenomenon by introducing process causal asymmetry - a fundamental difference in the amount of past…

Polarization is a well-documented phenomenon across a wide range of social issues. However, prevailing theories often compartmentalize the examination of herding behavior and opinion convergence within different contexts. In this study, we…

Modern recommendation systems rely on the wisdom of the crowd to learn the optimal course of action. This induces an inherent mis-alignment of incentives between the system's objective to learn (explore) and the individual users' objective…

We consider a finite-horizon discrete-time dynamic system that is jointly controlled by two strategic agents. There is a system designer that has its own reward function but does not have direct control over the agents' actions. We consider…

A network of agents is considered whose decision processes are described by the quantum decision theory previously advanced by the authors. Decision making is done by evaluating the utility of alternatives, their attractiveness, and the…

We study the design of optimal incentives in sequential processes. To do so, we consider a basic and fundamental model in which an agent initiates a value-creating sequential process through costly investment with random success. If…

We study the outcomes of information aggregation in online social networks. Our main result is that networks with certain realistic structural properties avoid information cascades and enable a population to effectively aggregate…

We study a repeated information design problem faced by an informed sender who tries to influence the behavior of a self-interested receiver. We consider settings where the receiver faces a sequential decision making (SDM) problem. At each…

In imperfect information games (e.g. Bridge, Skat, Poker), one of the fundamental considerations is to infer the missing information while at the same time avoiding the disclosure of private information. Disregarding the issue of protecting…

We consider here information spread which propagates with certain probability from nodes just activated to their not yet activated neighbors. Diffusion cascades can be triggered by activation of even a small set of nodes. Such activation is…

We study a model of consensus decision making, in which a finite group of Bayesian agents has to choose between one of two courses of action. Each member of the group has a private and independent signal at his or her disposal, giving some…

Sequential recommender systems are an important and demanded area of research. Such systems aim to use the order of interactions in a user's history to predict future interactions. The premise is that the order of interactions and…

Many interventions, such as vaccines in clinical trials or coupons in online marketplaces, must be assigned sequentially without full knowledge of their effects. Multi-armed bandit algorithms have proven successful in such settings.…

The level of autonomy is increasing in systems spanning multiple domains, but these systems still experience failures. One way to mitigate the risk of failures is to integrate human oversight of the autonomous systems and rely on the human…

Turbulence theory is usually concerned with the statistical moments of the velocity or its fluctuations. One could also analyze the implicit probability distributions. This is the purview of information theory. Here we use information…

A general notion of information-related complexity applicable to both natural and man-made systems is proposed. The overall approach is to explicitly consider a rational agent performing a certain task with a quantifiable degree of success.…