相关论文: How fragile are information cascades?

When learning in strategic environments, a key question is whether agents can overcome uncertainty about their preferences to achieve outcomes they could have achieved absent any uncertainty. Can they do this solely through interactions…

We consider the problem of locating the source of a network cascade, given a noisy time-series of network data. Initially, the cascade starts with one unknown, affected vertex and spreads deterministically at each time step. The goal is to…

We consider a two-road dynamic routing game where the state of one of the roads (the "risky road") is stochastic and may change over time. This generates room for experimentation. A central planner may wish to induce some of the (finite…

Consider the following multi-phase project management problem. Each project is divided into several phases. All projects enter the next phase at the same point chosen by the decision maker based on observations up to that point. Within each…

We develop a model of social learning from overabundant information: Short-lived agents sequentially choose from a large set of (flexibly correlated) information sources for prediction of an unknown state. Signal realizations are public. We…

This paper studies a dynamic information acquisition model with payoff externalities. Two players can acquire costly information about an unknown state before taking a safe or risky action. Both information and the action taken are private.…

We propose information-directed sampling -- a new approach to online optimization problems in which a decision-maker must balance between exploration and exploitation while learning from partial feedback. Each action is sampled in a manner…

A researcher observes a finite sequence of choices made by multiple agents in a binary-state environment. Agents maximize expected utilities that depend on their chosen alternative and the unknown underlying state. Agents learn about the…

Information cascades exist in a wide variety of platforms on Internet. A very important real-world problem is to identify which information cascades can go viral. A system addressing this problem can be used in a variety of applications…

This paper investigates the investment problem of constructing an optimal no-short sequential portfolio strategy in a market with a latent dependence structure between asset prices and partly unobservable side information, which is often…

Desensitization addresses safe optimal planning under parametric uncertainties by providing sensitivity function-based risk estimates. This paper expands upon the existing work on desensitization in optimal control to address safe planning…

We consider a class of sequential network interdiction problem settings where the interdictor has incomplete initial information about the network while the evader has complete knowledge of the network including its structure and arc costs.…

In nonstationary bandit learning problems, the decision-maker must continually gather information and adapt their action selection as the latent state of the environment evolves. In each time period, some latent optimal action maximizes…

Use-dependent bias is a phenomenon in human sensorimotor behavior whereby movements become biased towards previously repeated actions. Despite being well-documented, the reason why this phenomenon occurs is not yet clearly understood. Here,…

We study the effect of providing information to agents who queue before a scarce good is distributed at a fixed time. Many information policies reveal "sudden bad news," when agents learn the queue is longer than previously believed. Sudden…

Information cascades, effectively facilitated by most social network platforms, are recognized as a major factor in almost every social success and disaster in these networks. Can cascades be predicted? While many believe that they are…

We study the problem of agent selection in causal strategic learning under multiple decision makers and address two key challenges that come with it. Firstly, while much of prior work focuses on studying a fixed pool of agents that remains…

We consider the prisoner's dilemma being played repeatedly on a dynamic network, where agents may choose their actions as well as their co-players. This leads to co-evolution of network structure and strategy patterns of the players.…

We consider the problem of sequential evaluation, in which an evaluator observes candidates in a sequence and assigns scores to these candidates in an online, irrevocable fashion. Motivated by the psychology literature that has studied…

We introduce a model of interacting random walkers on a finite one dimensional chain with absorbing boundaries or targets at the ends. Walkers are of two types: informed particles that move ballistically towards a given target, and…