相关论文: A bare-bones mathematical model of radicalization

Modeling the conditions for the emergence of extremism is a very important problem, with clear applications for describing the interaction among individuals. Traditional models either are not suited for the task, as in the case of discrete…

Investigation of the critical levels and catastrophes in the complex systems of different nature is useful and perspective. Mathematical modeling and analysis is presented for revealing and investigation of the phenomena and critical levels…

Statistical analysis is an important tool to distinguish systematic from chance findings. Current statistical analyses rely on distributional assumptions reflecting the structure of some underlying model, which if not met lead to problems…

[Spreadsheet] Models are invaluable tools for strategic planning. Models help key decision makers develop a shared conceptual understanding of complex decisions, identify sensitivity factors and test management scenarios. Different…

Adversarial attacks on explainability models have drastic consequences when explanations are used to understand the reasoning of neural networks in safety critical systems. Path methods are one such class of attribution methods susceptible…

In psychiatry, we often speak of constructing "models." Here we try to make sense of what such a claim might mean, starting with the most fundamental question: "What is (and isn't) a model?". We then discuss, in a concrete measurable sense,…

We introduce and motivate generative modeling as a central task for machine learning and provide a critical view of the algorithms which have been proposed for solving this task. We overview how generative modeling can be defined…

When a dangerous international crisis begins, leaders need to know whether their next move is going to resolve the dispute or amplify it out of control. Theories of conflict have mainly served to deepen the confusion, revealing fighting,…

A geometric representation for multivariate extremes, based on the shapes of scaled sample clouds in light-tailed margins and their so-called limit sets, has recently been shown to connect several existing extremal dependence concepts.…

Social categorizations divide people into "us" and "them," often along continuous attributes such as political ideology or skin color. This division results in both positive consequences, such as a sense of community, and negative ones,…

This article introduces epidemia, an R package for Bayesian, regression-oriented modeling of infectious diseases. The implemented models define a likelihood for all observed data while also explicitly modeling transmission dynamics: an…

Uncertainty, error, and similar complications add to the many challenges of cyber security. Various disciplines have developed methods for managing these complications, but applying these methods involves disambiguating overlapping…

In spite of precautions to avoid the harmful effects of extreme events, we experience recurrently phenomena that overcome the preventive barriers. These barriers usually increase drastically right after the occurrence of such extreme…

Terrorism instills fear in the minds of people and takes away the freedom of individuals to act as they will. Terrorism has turned out to be an international menace today. Here, we study the terrorist attack incidents which occurred in the…

Containing the spreading of crime in urban societies remains a major challenge. Empirical evidence suggests that, left unchecked, crimes may be recurrent and proliferate. On the other hand, eradicating a culture of crime may be difficult,…

Majorisation, also called rearrangement inequalities, yields a type of stochastic ordering in which two or more distributions can be compared. In this paper we argue that majorisation is a good candidate as a theory for uncertainty. We…

Traditionally, "Cryptography" is a benediction to information processing and communications, it helps people to store information securely and the private communications over long distances. Cryptovirology is the study of applications of…

The indoctrination game is a complete-information contest over public opinion. The players exert costly effort to manifest their private opinions in public in order to control the discussion, so that the governing opinion is similar to…

Ambition and risk-taking have been heralded as important ways for marginalized communities to get out of cycles of poverty. As a result, educational messaging often encourages individuals to strengthen their personal resolve and develop…

A model for terrorism is presented using the theory of percolation. Terrorism power is related to the spontaneous formation of random backbones of people who are sympathetic to terrorism but without being directly involved in it. They just…