相关论文: Modeling non-stationary extreme dependence with st…

The statistical modeling of space-time extremes in environmental applications is key to understanding complex dependence structures in original event data and to generating realistic scenarios for impact models. In this context of…

We develop a unified statistical framework for attributing heatwaves as spatio-temporal phenomena under climate change. We quantify the impact of anthropogenic forcing on the probability and persistence of heatwaves not captured by standard…

Accurate wind power forecasts depend on reliable wind speed forecasts. Numerical Weather Predictions (NWPs) utilize huge amounts of computing time, but still have rather low spatial and temporal resolution. However, stochastic wind speed…

Although most models for rainfall extremes focus on point-wise values, it is aggregated precipitation over areas up to river catchment scale that is of the most interest. To capture the joint behaviour of precipitation aggregates evaluated…

Modelling dependencies between climate extremes is important for climate risk assessment, for instance when allocating emergency management funds. In statistics, multivariate extreme value theory is often used to model spatial extremes.…

The max-stable process is an asymptotically justified model for spatial extremes. In particular, we focus on the hierarchical extreme-value process (HEVP), which is a particular max-stable process that is conducive to Bayesian computing.…

Statistical downscaling of global climate models (GCMs) allows researchers to study local climate change effects decades into the future. A wide range of statistical models have been applied to downscaling GCMs but recent advances in…

Extreme weather is one of the main mechanisms through which climate change will directly impact human society. Coping with such change as a global community requires markedly improved understanding of how global warming drives extreme…

We propose a vector generalized additive modeling framework for taking into account the effect of covariates on angular density functions in a multivariate extreme value context. The proposed methods are tailored for settings where the…

Deep learning models have achieved remarkable progress in precipitation prediction. However, they still face significant challenges in accurately capturing spatial details of radar images, particularly in regions of high precipitation…

Increasingly larger data sets of processes in space and time ask for statistical models and methods that can cope with such data. We show that the solution of a stochastic advection-diffusion partial differential equation provides a…

A Bayesian approach is developed to analyze change points in multivariate time series and space-time data. The methodology is used to assess the impact of extended inundation on the ecosystem of the Gulf Plains bioregion in northern…

A leading goal for climate science and weather risk management is to accurately model both the physics and statistics of extreme events. These two goals are fundamentally at odds: the higher a computational model's resolution, the more…

In this paper we concentrate on an alternative modeling strategy for positive data that exhibit spatial or spatio-temporal dependence. Specifically we propose to consider stochastic processes obtained trough a monotone transformation of…

The paper introduces a new regression model designed for situations where both the response and covariates are non-stationary extremes. This method is specifically designed for situations where both the response variable and covariates are…

Nonlinear dynamical stochastic models are ubiquitous in different areas. Excitable media models are typical examples with large state dimensions. Their statistical properties are often of great interest but are also very challenging to…

Multistability is a phenomenon prevalent in many natural systems. In climate, for example, it allows the possibility of irreversible consequences on planetary scale as a result of climate change. Indeed, a climate ``tipping element'' is a…

Statistical methods for inference on spatial extremes of large datasets are yet to be developed. Motivated by standard dimension reduction techniques used in spatial statistics, we propose an approach based on empirical basis functions to…

Extreme streamflow is a key indicator of flood risk, and quantifying the changes in its distribution under non-stationary climate conditions is key to mitigating the impact of flooding events. We propose a non-stationary process mixture…

We develop a novel multi-factor copula model for multivariate spatial extremes, which is designed to capture the different combinations of marginal and cross-extremal dependence structures within and across different spatial random fields.…